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Jump To Comment: 1A short article outlining our understanding and analysis of what is currently happening in Lebanon. Please respons with your analysis and positions.
The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday , May 30, 2007 authorized the formation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Resolution 1757 was the first ever Resolution giving the self-assumed 'right' to the Security Council to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign country. Resolution 1757 takes sides with one political group against another and dictates specific political positions that would have otherwise needed constitutional changes.
The Lebanese Government, supported by the US Administrationand its local allies, but whose very constitutional position is questionable not only due to the resignation of all Shia ministers (Shias are the largest Lebanese sect) but also the withdrawal from government of the elected representatives of a Christian political group ( Lebanese Free Patriots ), requested that the UN pass this resolution under Chapter VII. Resolution 1757 was opposed by China, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa and Qatar who abstained – an interesting phenomenon in itself as the last three are Muslim, Arab but also non-aligned states. Their argument was that 1757 would further push Lebanon towards instability and chaos. We think they're right!
Opposition in Lebanon to the establishment of this international tribunal is not against the Tribunal itself but because of the fact that the opposition groups had no opportunity to discuss the arrangement of the Tribunal within the existing Lebanese constitutional provisions. They also reject the position that the Lebanese President is the only constitutionally empowered authority to formulate and sign treaties with foreign powers. They argue that this whole process opens the door and allows political abuse for the Tribunal and has a hidden agenda to chain those who stand firm against USA interference in the country and those who resisted Israel last summer.. Another matter is the financing of the Tribunal which will be a big burden on the Lebanese budget. Lebanon nowadays has the highest per capita debt in the world - even figures for the extent of this debt are not available!! The government has not even submitted the budget for 2006 or 2007 Finally for the Tribunal to be operational and within the existing stipulations of Lebanese law, the Lebanese Constitution will need to be amended..
Armed Conflict
The other major incident in Lebanon today is the armed clash between the radical Muslim group, Fath el Islam, now based in a Palestinian refugees camp in the north of the country, around tripoli, and the Lebanese Army. This group is led by Alabsi, a Jordanian radical involved in the assassination of an American Diplomat in Jordan with the co-operation of the executed Al Qaeda leader Al-Zarqawi. Alabsi served a three year prison sentence in Syria before settling in Lebanon.
The qroup, though based in a Palestinian refugee camp, has a very small Palestinian membership. It has a number of Lebanese followers in addition to others from a number of Gulf States and its main objective seems to be the ideological and military preparation of jihadis to go to Iraq. There are many questions about the authorities that allowed those extremists, rejected by the Palestinians, to congregate and accumulate in that camp. There are also questions about the identity of those involved in financing the group.
The first clash occurred with the group after the security forces tried to arrest some people involved in a bank robbery. The group used to receive regular payments through this bank in the past – payments that had been recently stopped! The bank belongs to the Hariri family, the political dynasty behind the Prime Minister Siniora. The Army became unexpectedly involved when members of the security forces were overwhelmed by resistance by the bank robbers. When the Security Committee in the Lebanese Parliament questioned the absence of intelligence gathering and sharing with the Army, the government answer was that four unsuccessful attempts had been made to contact the local Army Commander….! The Army Units in charge are linked to the Intelligence section pf the Ministry of the Interior. This section has been recently created by the current government from loyal officers.
There are many questions that make this clash appear questionable and not straight forward as it is portrayed from the outside.. There were many voices from the opposition warning that these religious radicals sheltering in the Lebanese society should be dealt with. These voices were not heeded.. They were even some government sections that helped some of these radicals claiming that they would be in the forefront of protecting the Sunni population in the event of a future clash with the Shia majority!! As a result, the security forces closed their eyes to their activity until very recently.
The clash occurred a few days after the visit by Mr Walsh, USA Assistant of Foreign Affairs Department, “in charge of the Middle East”. He met the Army Commander-in-Chief and asked him what side he will take if there was a change of government in the country. The apparent answer that he will keep the army united by taking no sides and this will protect the unity of the country apparently did not impress Mr Walsh!
The Army found themselves involved in heavy fighting with very little preparation, resulting in initial heavy casualties of soldiers and Palestinians civilians. The sinister calls of the government parties for a military solution by attacking the camp “to finish the job” were opposed by the opposition. They said a military solution will result to unnecessary civilians causalities and will create unrest within other Palestinian camps. They argued this should be dealt with as a security problem that needs security measures taken within the confines of law and justice.
The generosity of the Americans and their allies in the Middle East, Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait, in resupplying the army with munitions and equipment surprised many. As these lines are being written,, the Army has put the camp under siege and is resisting pressures to attack the camp, looking, as its Commanders say, for justice. The opposition’s stand with the aim in keeping the country united is working until now. Civilian causalities are minimum. These radicals are rejected by the Sunni population of Lebanon while those who supported them so far are trying to keep their distance from them now as they have become a political liability.
The question of the International Tribunal is another Chapter that has wider implications. The coming days will answer whether the opposition will be able to keep the Tribunal as an internal Lebanese affair or the government will succeed in turning Lebanon into another USA playground. If this happens, Israel will have achieved through the UN Security Council what it was not able to achieve last summer through its invasion.
Democracy at work in the Middle East