Western People /red c poll

by slippery.. Wed Mar 28, 2007 20:45

Flynn.
Kenny.
Ring.

F
K
R

add the vowels, etc.

by shell to sea supporter Wed Mar 28, 2007 20:50

In addition to above facts, the commentator on the Pat Kenny show ed how distance from the issue was favouring Ring, Kenny and Flynn. As to who to blame : 44 percent Govt., 30 percent protestors and 16 percent Shell. This indicates a serious commitment for S To S to help rather than hinder the positive support of the public to a more rational understanding of the issue. It is evident that the nature of protest needs to be examined in light of how potential supporters, those who want the refinery out to sea, the 55 percent , could be called upon to approach Government understood identified to be the main blame player in this situation. That 30 percent of the survey sample blame the protestors needs careful evaluation .

by confused local Wed Mar 28, 2007 21:33

I pointed out (personally) to DR cowley, some time ago that his attachment to the S2S group would cost him his seat, (ask him if you dont beleive me).
He choose to ignore my advice, the ironic thing about the findings, is that people of mayo see him as a hardworking TD(35%) ,and I think that is why he still has 8% support.
Had he been a Beverly or an Enda who just seems to drift along, his ratings would have been much worse.
It is a pity really because he is a good man (with his heart in the right place) he just became misguided.
gerry Murray also reaped the results of attachment to the S2S group (3%).
No doubt the S2S supporters will try blame someone/something else for this collapse in Cowleys vote.
But most of us know why he has fallen on his sword.

There is another poll in the mayo news that makes intresting reading reading, the corrib project is third from bottom in election concerns (18%) ( and that covers pro and anti gas)

the poll shows 30% blaming protesters+ 10% blaming others, anybody know who they mean by "others"
combine the two and you have as many blaming S2S as blame the goverment, with only 16% blaming big bad sHELL!

by analyser Wed Mar 28, 2007 22:13

A Poll of 511 peoople doesn't amount to much in a place the size of Mayo. You could get very different results depending on where in the constituency you did the polling. Given the amount of movement of people for work etc, you'd get a different result depending on what day of the week you conducted the survey too. That's not even taking into account whether you did the poll by phone, on doorsteps, in shopping centres, in Irish and/or English etc etc.

As for the election results being deduced from this- look, in real life no one actually fills in the ballot the way they do on polling forms. For a start, most people don't follow politics too closely and are likely to just pick out the ones they've heard of for their first preference. Real voters also rarely continue transfer preferences down the sheet, they give up after three or so.

Real voters have to walk to the polling booth and show ID as well, so they give some thought to their voting. They don't just get stopped in what they were doing and asked for their top-of-the-head, knee jerk response.

So what does this poll/survey show us?

Well, a lot of people in whatever part of Mayo this was done in have heard of Flynn, Kenny and Ring.

A clear majority of them want the gas refined at sea and brought ashore safely.

The Government and Shell are seen as the cause of the problems by many more people than the protesters.

And er, that's it as far as I can see.

As a supporter of Shell to Sea, I would take heart in these results, for what they are worth.

The election is soon, and Fianna Fáil's vote share in this poll is low. It'll be an interesting election for them unless they kick this issue into touch soon. I would imagine they are asking Dempsey what they are being sacrificed for, exactly, since the issue is not making friends for FF anywhere, and the country is not getting anything out of the project.

by analyser/analyser Wed Mar 28, 2007 22:40

The poll was carried throughout mayo (32 areas) predicted 96% accuracy, reputable pollsters (Red C).
DR Cowley would have huge public support in erris/mayo before he became affiliated to S2S, It was predicted on this site several months ago that he would be blamed for the continuing strife at bellinaboy.
This poll proves that theory, it doesn't matter what he does now, he has made his bed, now he must lie in it.
If you add the 30% and the 10% "others" (which I take to mean outsiders) you get 40% of us blame you for erris losing out on a once in a lifetime chance.

by Analyser Wed Mar 28, 2007 23:19

From the article:

"Perhaps the most interesting finding is in the area of responsibility for the Corrib Gas problem with the public in Mayo showing no hesitatio in pointing the finger of blame at the Government. A total of 44 per cent of the 511 people surveyed believe that the Government is responsible for the crisis that has developed in Erris in the last two years with 30 per cent laying the blame at the doorstep of the local protesters.

Only 16 per cent believe that the company behind the project - Shell E&P - are responsible, while the remaining 11 per cent claim that ‘Others’ are to blame, although it is not clear who these ‘Others’ actually are."

So let's see, 44 per cent blame the government, and 16 per cent blame Shell Exploitation and Production. That's what, a whopping 60 per cent of the people of Mayo blame Fianna Fåil and Shell.

Now you're quoting this poll like it proves your stance in supporting this project is widely shared, and folks in Mayo blame the protesters for causing the trouble by standing up to Shell. How can you use this poll to suggest that and keep a straight face? It's SIXTY per cent blaming the govt and Shell, and FIFTY FIVE per cent against the gas being refined on shore.

You should be buying up all the copies of the paper and burning them. They show wide support for the Shell to Sea campaign which you despise.

Now lets look at the other side. 30 per cent of people surveyed think the protesters are to blame for the conflict. Well, they are aren't they? Just as there would be no feminism without feminists, or no nationalism without nationalists, there would be no protests without protesters.

The other 11 per cent of the people who blamed outsiders are interesting. Who can they mean? Injeemeeja? The Masons? Greenpeace? The IRA (they haven't gone away you know, oh no)? Space Aliens? Norwegian Trade Unionists ? Iggy Madden?

My money is on the cops. That man O'Reilly. He started it. And then ran away...

by ME Wed Mar 28, 2007 23:57

Analyser,
what you are attempting to do is akin to rearranging the deckchairs on the titanic.
Of course the government are to blame for this mess.
But most people realize you cant unscramble an omelet.
water under the bridge!
But S2S are being seen as an embarrassment to the people of mayo (see Joe duffys interview with Maura).
I predict Cowley will be shamed/destroyed at the next General election, and if you think differently, you are sadly mistaken.
The campaign to portray a vote for cowley as a vote for S2S hasnt even begun yet!
Will you (S2S) disband if cowley gets less than 5% of the vote in the election?

by Analyser Thu Mar 29, 2007 01:02

I can't speak for anyone else but I won't care if Cowley gets elected or not. Cowley is not a Shell to Sea candidate. He supports the campaign, the campaign does not support him.

The reasons for the campaign won't change no matter who is elected.

The campaign is over when Shell go to sea, which this poll (for what it's worth) shows most of the people want.

Maybe there should be a poll of the people of Ireland showing how many support giving our natural resources away.

How many do you think would support that?

(By the way, i would suggest that you don't use the Titanic as metaphor, since you are trying to sell the idea of this giant refinery and pipeline being so wonderfully designed that nothing can go wrong, and no one will have to die to show the folly of big business.)

by me again Thu Mar 29, 2007 08:48

actually I was using the titanic as a metaphor for "Shell to Sea".
The mere fact that you now are distancing yourselves Dr Cowley, shows how sad/hopeless this Campaign has become.
You are admitting (by proxy) that Cowley will lose his seat in the election.
And I am confident, the only reason he will lose , is because of his support for S2S.
Why didn't garavin run as an independent in the GE?, is it because himself and Gerry decided (over the phone) that if they both ran in the election the splitting of the vote would go against them.
Well it is now clear that Cowley is the fall-guy.

by analyser Thu Mar 29, 2007 09:38

Let me spell it out for you: TITANIC: Not a good metaphor for those who want to make people believe that the there is not going to be a disaster, and that this new technology is safe, because that was what they said about the Titanic, and it sank and killed lots of people, showing you can't trust iidiots who tell you that their new system will be fine and nothing can go wrong.

I suspect you were never a supporter of this campaign, but perhaps it would be better for your case if you made arguments based on the issues, rather than trying to make this opinion poll work for you.

According to the results of asking these 511 people:

The clear majority of people in Mayo want the gas refined at sea.

The clear majority are blaming Shell and the Irish government for the current situation.

What part of this do you not understand?

Judging the outcome of the election based on the findings of a newspaper opinion poll is a sily occupation, but it wouldn't matter to the above facts if it said that Jerry Cowley was going to win ALL the seats.

Shell to sea says the refinery is not safe. The pipeline is not safe. The deal is corrupt and rotten. The govt is to blame and Shell cannot be trusted.

Are you capable of arguing against that? Or do you just want to make specious arguments about the newspaper?

by Pushkin Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:36

"The accuracy of the data is estimated to be plus or minus four per cent at 95 per cent confidence. "

So the reality is that the poll has a plus or minus factor of 9%. Red C use a different methodology than the MRBI who carry out the Irish Times Polls. The IT polls factor in the exageration of FF support. MRBI/IT polls have been consistently closer to the real outcome in elections.

by CL Thu Mar 29, 2007 17:18

Another analogy (ostrich) you think by ignoring the data/facts, that makes your argument correct.
I think the refinery would be better at shoreline (or offshore) with a safer pipeline through rossport, I never said anything else.
But what has/will cost Cowley his seat, is the actions of the S2S group and its supporters.
S2S should have hired a PR guru, when they first setup. every move they made lost them public support.
You should realize by now that neither the government or Shell has the option of relocating this refinery.
That is one precedence you can be sure they wont or cant set.
Cowley should have known that, Ring/Flynn/Kenny all realized that long ago.
To be associated with the people that hurl abuse at the men going to work, to feed and clothed their families, was not a very smart thing for a TD!
I never had a problem with the idea of refining the gas offshore, my only interest in this was to highlight the scare tactics being used to gather support for S2S.

by BadlyBruisedVictim Thu Mar 29, 2007 18:18

by far the scariest tactic was the government approved violence used by the gardai against the citizens of mayo exercising their democratic right to protest

by real Thu Mar 29, 2007 21:44

the election will be used for excatly that purpose, to send a clear signal to the S2S.
What makes most local people angry, is the fact that cowley is to be sacrificed because of it.
If garavin were to stand in the general election (which is what he should have done) he would be lucky to get 200 votes (in my view).
When are S2S going to wake up and smell the coffee, you had "solidarity days" very few locals turn up, you have information evenings , few turn up, and some of them were pro shell.
you have protests and most of the protesters are not local, when are you going to realise we want you to go away?