What should Gaybo do about road deaths?

by T Wed Mar 29, 2006 15:08

It's good to see some discussion about this important area.

Surprisenly though the actual death rate per capita due to motor vehicle accidents has fallen since the mid 1970s when the total number of deaths exceeded 700 per year at one stage and the number of cars was much less. Here's some stats on the number of cars in Ireland:

Year No. of Cars
1976 551,117
1981 774,594
1986 711,087
1991 836,583
1996 1,057,383
2001 1,384,704
2006 1,661,655 (projected)

And here's some statistics that I came across on the number of dead and injured due to car accidents for more recent years. I could not find injury figures for after 1999.

Year Death Injured
1994 404 10,229
1995 437 12,673
1996 453 13,319
1997 472 13,115
1998 458 12,773
1999 413
2000 322
2001 366
2002 343
2003 293
2004 379

The dip in 2003 was due to the introduction of penalty points and when the novelty or threat? wore off, the death rate went back up again.

Whether the death rate is falling or not, quite clearly it is still appalling and simply way too high. It's difficult to determine the true causes and assign blame to accidents but obviously the 7 points raised above are key.

My own personnal experience is that many people are quite simply careless and drive too fast in given situations. A while ago, I came across some studies that suggested a link between the overall level of violence and deprivation in a given area and the accident and death rate. If I recall correctly the study analysed the accident rate down to the small scale borough level in the UK and correlated this at this level against the accident rate.

The general thesis was that the more stressed, angry or otherwise of drivers the more likely they were to crash. This makes sense because I have found myself, that if I am really annoyed, stressed about something or tired, my driving is definitely a lot worse.

Other studies showed that in environments where a lot of things are happening the accident rate is higher. For example a busy high street where there are lots of parked cars, cars pulling in and out, lots of pedestrains walking about and of course busy traffic through the street itself that these areas are black spots. The town of Gorey in Co. Wexford is such a place and it has had a lot of fatal accidents. It's main street is part of the main road to Wexford and Rossalare. It has lots of traffic and can be a very busy shopping area. It makes sense that if you pull up or drive through such a street that if you are anyway stressed or tired at all, you will completely miss that car pulling out while you have your eye on the oncoming traffic or the person crossing the road from your left, or any combination of these complex movements that you must track.

Education and attitudes are also an important area. I recall about 6 or 7 years ago, although I think attitudes have improved a bit since then, one individual in a conversation with me in work one day was bragging about 'doing the tonne' down some particular road.

It seems that death and accident rates are higher in "less developed" countries. For example in places like India the death rate per capita (of car owner) is enormous. But if you calculate this figure per capita of the country where few own cars, the figure is distored and a lot lower. It is well known that the accident rate in Eastern Europe is much higher than Ireland. On the other hand the accident rate in places like UK, Germany and Denmark is a good deal lower than here. What is it that is different in these places. Obviously it's a combination of road infrastructure (surfaces, signs, ramps etc), enforcement and attitudes. One key thing that I notice is that the more deprived or poorer people are the less safety conscious they are. For example I have often seen people from the itinernant community holding their kids in the front seat of their cars and vans, with neither wearing seat belts. I have also noticed this behaviour a bit elsewhere. However you never see the middle class doing this. Why? And on a related note, we know that the accident rate among young males is very high. This obviously relates to a more reckless behaviour and has a lot to do with pumped up testerone, trying to impress themselves and their mates, the girls. Overall their agression levels are going to be higher and they are less safety conscious. One could argue it's a more care-free attitude. Perhaps safety is somehow perceived as a namby pamby attitude and "over" safety conscious people are seen as fussy and snoby or it's not very macho.

by Mick Wed Mar 29, 2006 15:38

Thanks for the figures - cleared up a lot of my mistaken ideas
However i dont think your example of Gorey applies.
Judging by newspaper and TV coverage - most of these accidents involving young men or multiple deaths of young people happen in country areas as they speed home drunk on winding backroads.
I dont think the police can be everywhere at once especially in rural areas so it is basically up to the public themselves to heed the warnings.
The figures show that certainly deaths have gone down but they seem to stubbornly stay remain around the 300-400 region. So it seems to me that there is a serious problem with the public ignoring the dangers despite the courageous thankless attempts by government, police and media to persuade people to take care.
i placed public stupidity No.1 because the other causes of accidents are magnified by the first most important factor - human error.

by T Wed Mar 29, 2006 16:01

Mick,

Regarding Gorey, I not saying it is one of the major sources or black spots, but what I am saying is that that type of environment is dangerious. For example, I know that Stillorgan in Dublin, which is also another area with lots of traffic and people there has been a number of horrific deaths. About a year ago a woman was killed there crossing the road with her pram by a truck.

I more or less agree with you placing public ignorance and stupidity as ranking number one, but I think public ignorance and stupidity are broadly linked with "education" in terms of the level of safety conscious, attitudes and overall amount of stress in a person's life. Certainly there are many stupid people regarding the way they drive, but if we look deeper and I don't think we necessarily have the facts or data available, I think we will see other underlying factors as I suggest above.

In the meantime I have checked out the NRA.ie website and found a publication related to the seat belt wearing rates. Here's some figures. Notice the lower figure for 2003 when penalty points introduced and the rate seems to have stalled since then. Overall the increase since 1991 and the drop in deaths (figures above) since then may be linked:

Driver Seat Belt wearing rates (from www.nra.ie) (tags added to help separate data)

Year -- Male Female Overall
======================
2005 -- 83% -- 92% -- 86%
2003 -- 82% -- 90% -- 85%
2002 -- 66% -- 80% -- 71%
1999 -- 48% -- 68% -- 55%
1991 -- 49% -- 60% -- 52%

by Mick Wed Mar 29, 2006 17:38

However I have to disagree with you about education.
I do not believe that lack of education has much to do with road deaths.
Most of our population at a minimum have a leaving cert if not some college qualification. Yet these people are dying in needless accidents - because they are ignoring the safety warnings i mentioned above. Its possible to be highly educated yet be an idiot on the road.

by Terence Wed Mar 29, 2006 21:12

Mick,
When I say education, I put it in quotes as I don't really mean the fact that one has gone to school or can read and write, it's more in the sense that the person is opening to learning and thinking about things. People who don't give a thought about anything, in my book at least, tend to be ignorant and I consider them uneducated. The education that I suppose I mean also refers to the concept of socially educated -i.e. that one is aware of their role and responsibility in society and to it.

I recall seeing a document a while back that came from the marketing dept of same place in the US for the selling of SUVs and their surveys had shown up that SUV drivers tend to be more aggressive, indiviudalist, narcissistic, insecure, vain, selfish and less likely to engage in community organisations. Now that's broadly but not very strongly correlated, but the trend is nevertheless there. Likewise I suspect that if we take the 25% worst drivers, those real idiotic ones, I am confident that they would show up their own set of patterns of general behaviour or personality.

by Terence Thu Mar 30, 2006 15:24

The National Roads Authority have produced a document called: Road Collision Facts 2004 which can be found at the URL below and it contains lots of interesting data for anyone who is interested in finding out more about the reasons for the awful carnage on our roads and the consequent shattered lives that it causes.

For example it reports that we rank 7th in the EU at 8.4 fatalities per 100,000 with the lowest being Sweden at 5.9 and Portugal (14.8) and Greece (19.3) the worst.

It also shows that as I reported in my first comment above, the rate per million and total has actually fallen since the early 1970s and back then the percentage of pedestrains killed of the total was almost 40% and this has since fallen to around 20%. I would think this reflects the better infrastructure in terms of roads, signs, barriers.

Moving onto the breakdown of collisions, locations and times it says (edited slightly):

A total of 374 persons were killed in 2004.... Thirty-six per cent of all fatal collisions in 2004 were single vehicle only collisions. .... This collision type, which involves no other road user, is strongly associated with two causal factors, namely excessive speed and / or alcohol consumption.Single vehicle only collisions accounted for just 20 per cent of injury collisions.

Head-on collisions accounted for 22 per cent of fatal collisions and 20 per cent of injury collisions. Collisions involving pedestrians accounted for 20 per cent of all fatal collisions and 16 per cent of all injury collisions.

Single vehicle, head-on and pedestrian collisions all accounted for a greater percentage of fatal than injury collisions, indicating that these collision types are, on average, more severe than angle, rear-end or ‘other’ road collision types, which together accounted for 45 per cent of injury collisions but only 22 per cent of fatal collisions.

The worst month for fatalities in 2004 was July when 38 persons died in 32 collisions. October recorded the fewest collisions when 22 persons died in 20 collisions. The number of fatal collisions between the hours of 9.00 pm and 3.00 am, the hours most strongly associated with drinking and driving, was 83 in 2004, with 97 persons being killed in these collisions. This period accounted for 25 per cent of fatal collisions and 26 per cent of fatalities in 2004.

The number of persons killed during the later hours of darkness (between 3.00 am and 6.00 am), i.e. 36, increased by two over the 2003 level. Fatalities that occurred during these hours accounted for approximately 10 per cent of all road collision fatalities in 2004.

The worst days of the week for fatalities during 2004 were Saturdays and Sundays. These two days together accounted for 154 fatalities, or 41 per cent of total. The days of the week with fewest associated fatalities were Mondays and Tuesdays, on which days 70 persons, or 19 per cent of total, died.

Thirty per cent of all fatal collisions in 2004 occurred on urban roads, an increase of two percentage points over the 2003 figure. The percentage of fatal collisions occurring on rural roads decreased by two percentage points to 70 per cent. Forty per cent of all fatal collisions occurred on national roads...

On a county-by-county basis, Cavan experienced the highest number of collisions per population (2.9 per 1,000 persons). Longford had the highest number of collisions per 1,000 registered vehicles (5.0). Louth experienced the highest number of collisions per 10 million vehicle kilometers of Travel (2.6).

I think what is most strange is the way the number of collisions in each category hardly change from year to year and this demonstrates an inevitability in terms of the probable outcome of events given certain consistent conditions and behaviour.

by John - dunaree2000 Thu Mar 30, 2006 16:23

Terence makes a number of excellent points and most of his figures are correct. However, the Garda web site which contains official road deaths figures from 1960 on gives different figures for some of the years. In particular, it gives a figure of 335 for 2003 which was the best year for road deaths in Ireland for decades. The figures for each year from 1994 on given in the garda website are:

1994 404
1995 437
1996 453
1997 472
1998 458
1999 413
2000 415
2001 411
2002 376
2003 335
2004 374
2005 399

A number of points stand out when these figures are examined.

(1) The number of road deaths rose sharply between 1994 and 1997

(2) The number fell by almost 30 per cent between 1997 and 2003 - or by nearly 40 per cent
per capita if the increase in population is taken into account

Given these facts, there is no justification wahtever for FG and Labour to be trying to make political capital out of these tragedies. Their own record betwen 1994 and 1997 was appalling and that of FF and the PDs superb in comparison between 1997 and 2003.

However, as the figures show, some but by no means all of the reduction between 1997 and 2003 was lost between 2003 and 2005. Many explanations have been forward. But, the most likely one is the influx of young immigrants from eastern Europe since 2003. A survey in the Irish Independent in January revealed that non-nationals accounted for about a quarter of road deaths in the previous six months, although they only make up 5 or 6 per cent of the population. We recently had the terrible tragedy in Donegal in which 5 young Latvians were killed. This is not racist. I myself am totally in favour of free entry of east Europeans to Ireland. But, it should be recognised that the influx poses special problems for road safety in Ireland, firstly because the east European countries that most immigrants to Ireland come from have by far the worst road deaths rates in Europe, three or four times the rate that even Ireland has, so they're not very good drivers to begin with - and secondly because they drive on the other side of the road here to what they are used to at home. The best solution would be for Ireland to compel immigrants from eastern Europe to pass the driving-test in Ireland before being allowed to drive here. Although we're supposed to be harmonising laws throughout Europe, Ireland can justify making a special case on the grounds that nearly all the immigrants to Ireland will be driving here on the other side of the road to what they are used to at home, somrthing which doesn't apply when immigrants from eastern Europe move to Germany, France etc.

by Mick Thu Mar 30, 2006 18:50

I agree with you Terence - the roads deaths are based on consistent behaviour patterns.
but I am deeply pessimistic about anybody being able to influence them.

John , I agree with you about changing the side of the road we drive on:

Lets begin a trial program with articulated lorries.

by John B Sat Apr 01, 2006 11:33

This discussion, and all the other discussions I have heard on this issue, miss the point. Cars Kill. The more cars we have on the roads, the more roads we have the more death there will be. Not only directly through collisions and accidents but indirectly through air, water and soil pollution, through stress - having to keep up the repayments on that big new motor and all that time wasted in traffic jams, and that's only looking at the human world. What about animals flattened by thoughtless drivers? What about habitats destroyed through road building? What about the loss of beauty in our natural environment, the things that keep us sane and human? Who's counting all that?

I'll say, it again. Cars Kill, Roads Kill. We can say we need to be able to move goods and people around more quickly, more effectively to keep the economy healthy but this mentality is leading us towards a precipice. We are eroding our real economic base, the environment on which our health and wellbeing and capacity to make money or better yet, to enjoy life depend.

Here's some solutions or rather the beginnings of some solutions though if we want to enact them we'll have to do it ourselves. No way that bunch of criminals who call themselves a government will do it for us.

The bottom line is:
We need to reduce car use and we need to reduce the amount of goods that have to be moved by road.

What about some proper public transport for a start - especially in rural areas
What about rebuilding the rail network? Why was it dismantled in the first place?
What about looking at our country's needs region by region and finding ways to meet local needs locally?
What about teaching kids from an early age to grow and process food, to make tools, to build, to be imaginative, self reliant and resourceful thus reducing the need to jump in the car to the supermarket, DIY store etc.?
What about teaching folk that self esteem and attractiveness to the opposite sex is not down to the car you drive or the consumer goods you possess but down to something more subtle, more elusive that cannot be bought?
What about losing the notion that we have to keep expanding economically to survive and change to a slower, healthier, more natural pace of life that values wellbeing and joy over profit margins?

That's it, I hope this makes sense to some folk out there because the fuel is running out and if we do not make some sensible choices soon they will be made for us and that will be much more painful.

by frankc Tue Aug 08, 2006 17:44

Hello,
Good to see use of stats rather than usual piffle about speeding and alcohol, without any supporting data. Unfortunately all the stats that I can see for Ireland do NOT address causes of accidents, i.e. where are stats showing causal link between accidents and speeding and alcohol. Correlation is not the same as cause!

by David Kirwan - No Org Sat Sep 16, 2006 14:50

If we were serious about the 100kph speed limit then we would insist on a law
requiring all vehicles to be equipped with Governors restricting theits speed to
100 kph.

Its not difficult .

I lived in Bermuda for 2 years and although the speed limit is not enforced by
governors it is regorously enforced by the police and is a maximim of 35 KPH
everywhere.

The point of the above is that everyone is used to travelling at that speed and it
feels decadent travelling at 45kph.

If there were governors on all vehciles then we would rapidly get used to the
reduced speed ( one we pass through the moaning phase).

At least one issue would be resolved.

As regards drinking - the only way to stop drink driving is to enforce a law that
says Any Alcohol whatever in the bloodstream is illegal.

Allowing people ANY limit temps then to cod themselves into thinking they are
probably "all right".

Only a rigid zero tolerance limit and policy will work.

by Mike Tue Oct 31, 2006 18:38

While the Garda cannot effectively deal with UK & EU drivers, we cannot expect things to get better on our roads. I'm all for EU integration and have worked in most European countries over the past 18 years - spending a year or more living and working in each of NL, Hungary, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Turkey, Germany, Portugal etc etc - so before I start, I've no issue with the 'free movement of people'.

I acknowledge the state of roads has a large part to play, however the back roads of europe are no different ot Ireland - there is a perception that Irish roads are worse - they are not particularly worse.

What I cannot understand is:

1. I can only get a 3 month Insurance Green Card on my Irish insurance for duration abroad. Whereas I see Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian vehicles driving in Ireland in excess of 12 months (I see them, they're local to me).

2. What powers do the Garda have in terms of roadside checking of driver, vehicle and insurance details on a foreign vehicle - visibility of a green card is not sufficient as I could travel to Hungary tomorrow and return with a dozen very credible looking documents.

3. Vehicle inspections are once a year in most of europe - how can these vehicles receive a valid test cert if they are in Ireland.

4. We managed to eradicate the blase attitude to drink driving in Ireland, however many foreign nationals from jurisdictions where drink driving is the norm (although not legal), continue their ways here and seem to be immune to real prosecution (a time behind bars - and not just for foreigners). Slovenia has an interesting law whereby if a foreigner gives a positive sample, they are fined (taken to an ATM if need be), taken to the border and expelled as persona non grata.

5. What about all the northern cars driven by people who clearly live in the south and simply ignore speed restrictions etc.

The 'we need to be nice to everyone' attitude is admirable, however it is going too far when it becomes one law for one and one law for the other.

The road statistics would improve if all could be made abide by the law.

by maire Tue Apr 17, 2007 15:41

Have you noticed how children are now dropped off to school by car, even if they live close by? Have you noticed that on a lot of the roads to schools, the yellow line is up to the grass verge. ? Maybe you live in a city and you have not noticed, but try taking your children to school walking in the country, and you realise there is no space on the road to walk, the car rules supreme.
Maybe the NRA should only build roads that includes somewhere a person could walk, - cars do break down, and children should have a choice to walk to school.
Next time someone is killed walking home, look and see on the television, if he had a space to walk on the road.
Gaybo take note.

by Skeptic Tue Apr 17, 2007 16:45

We managed to eradicate the blase attitude to drink driving in Ireland, however many foreign nationals from jurisdictions where drink driving is the norm (although not legal), continue their ways here and seem to be immune to real prosecution

Do you have a reputable source statistic that supports any of these insinuations? If not then ....

by cc o madagain - ... Wed Aug 29, 2007 16:51

good to see discussion - this is a crisis/emergency situation, as anybody who knows anyone personally who has been killed will be more than aware. consider that since 2001 in Iraq, 3000 american soldiers have been killed. on irish roads, since 2001, 2381 have been killed as of august 28th, according to http://www.garda.ie/angarda/statistics98/nroadstats.html

what are we at war here? what is the grand sacrifice in aid of? getting to work 10 minutes more quickly?

I completely disagree that this is up to drivers to stop - that's the same claim that guns don't kill people, people kill people. if you adopt that position then you take responsibility away from arms dealers, and say there's nothing wrong with handing a gun to an enraged desperate person, which is clearly absurd. similarly, in this case, it is the responsibility of the minister for transport to resolve this crisis, and resolve it NOW.

it is absolutely up to the government to design laws that are threatening enough to stop people speeding even if they have a small chance of getting caught (who's going to risk a 10,000 euro fine? think it's ridiculous? say that when your brother or daughter gets killed); and that's in the short term - in the long term, our government should be held criminally responsible if they fail to organize a temporary personnel force to enforce these laws. for god's sake, a monkey could do it - we don't have to waste garda resources on speed gun duty. we're one of the richest countries in the world right now - hand out a bunch of jobs to poles, south americans, whoever - low paying jobs if need be, all they have to do is stand at the side of the road and point a speed gun. they don't have to arrest anyone, they're just collecting information. if this is not brought about, someone's head should roll. and most importantly, we the people should start getting really ANGRY about this. it's we who are being killed. consider that

if someone you know hasn't been killed yet - it's pure luck, and it may very well run out tomorrow. your friends and family are in pretty immediate danger: that's not an exaggeration - look at the stats. and do you feel comfortable with the people who are currently at the helm of the situation (a talk show host, etc) and what they've done so far? if not, do something about it - write to your TD today. it's your responsibility to force our elected government (we hired them) to stop this NOW.

by Sean Thu Aug 30, 2007 10:09

Yes, cars kill. But they don't do anything unless someone sits into them and controls their movement.

Behaviour in cars is what needs to be tackled.

Condensing it to 'cars kill' is childish.

by will e Thu Aug 30, 2007 16:08

I was stopped for speeding 10 years ago. It cost me £120 in total.
Last month I was stopped for speeding . It cost me €80 IN TOTAL.
That speaks for itself.

Speeding fines are not to deter speeding. They are another stealth tax.
The gardaí have become revenue collectors.
I could GUARANTEE a major reduction in speeding offences at the stroke of a pen -
simply link excessive speed to a proportionate increase in fine.
But that would be too effective and would hit revenue.

in the meantime people will die.