Another revolution in Ukraine?

international | anti-war / imperialism | opinion/analysis Tuesday November 23, 2004 17:55 by Righteous pragmatist

The road to democracy in Eastern Europe has proved longer than many thought

.Fifteen years after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and the subsequent speedy collapse of the Soviet Union, the unfolding turmoil in Ukraine is a sobering reminder that democracy is a fragile work-in-progress

In a sense, the world hardly needs reminding at a time when the blood-stained path to free elections in post-liberation Iraq and Afghanistan makes daily headlines. And yet the underlying rationale behind the US-led invasion of Iraq was a political transformation of the Middle East, which, in the minds of influential neo-conservatives within the Bush Administration, remained the last frontier of autocracy and dictatorship in a world otherwise won over to the ideal of liberal democracy. The events in Ukraine, which gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, show the fight is not yet over in Europe's backyard.

Tens of thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets of Kiev to protest against an allegedly fraudulent ballot in which the pro-Russian Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovich, appears to have been elected president. While independent exit polls pointed to a comfortable win for the pro-Western challenger, Viktor Yushchenko, official results showed Mr Yanukovich leading with most of the votes counted. Mr Yushchenko, alleging widespread ballot-rigging, particularly in the Russian-speaking industrialised east (where official figures suggest an unlikely 96 per cent turnout), is appealing to Europe to force a concession from his rival, insisting that "a coup d'etat is already under way". His claims of irregularities are backed by Western observers. Meanwhile, Mr Yanukovich is warning that there will be "no revolution".

The bitterly-fought election is considered one of the most crucial in Eastern Europe since the Soviet Union's collapse. At stake is whether the nation of almost 50 million stays under Moscow's shadow or joins the three new European members on its borders in tilting towards the West. The opposition leader has urged a peaceful display of people power, and we must hope that Western leaders, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin, intervene swiftly to diffuse a potentially violent confrontation.

What happens later is another matter. A just resolution probably would involve the establishment of a caretaker government, with fresh elections to take place as soon as practicable. An inspiring precedent can be found in Georgia, another former Soviet republic, where this time last year a bloodless "revolution of roses" toppled former president Eduard Shevardnadze and a subsequent election in January gave legitimacy to his opponents. And three years before this, Yugoslavia's iron-fisted president Slobodan Milosevic bowed to a popular uprising by stepping aside. Let us hope these episodes of recent history are playing in Prime Minister Yanukovich's mind as he ponders his predicament.