The Wholesome Photo of the Month Thu May 09, 2024 11:01 | Anti-Empire
In 3 War Years Russia Will Have Spent $3... Thu May 09, 2024 02:17 | Anti-Empire
UK Sending Missiles to Be Fired Into Rus... Tue May 07, 2024 14:17 | Marko Marjanović
US Gives Weapons to Taiwan for Free, The... Fri May 03, 2024 03:55 | Anti-Empire
Russia Has 17 Percent More Defense Jobs ... Tue Apr 30, 2024 11:56 | Marko Marjanović
Anti-Empire >>
Indymedia Ireland is a volunteer-run non-commercial open publishing website for local and international news, opinion & analysis, press releases and events. Its main objective is to enable the public to participate in reporting and analysis of the news and other important events and aspects of our daily lives and thereby give a voice to people.
Julian Assange is finally free ! Tue Jun 25, 2024 21:11 | indy
Stand With Palestine: Workplace Day of Action on Naksa Day Thu May 30, 2024 21:55 | indy
It is Chemtrails Month and Time to Visit this Topic Thu May 30, 2024 00:01 | indy
Hamburg 14.05. "Rote" Flora Reoccupied By Internationalists Wed May 15, 2024 15:49 | Internationalist left
Eddie Hobbs Breaks the Silence Exposing the Hidden Agenda Behind the WHO Treaty Sat May 11, 2024 22:41 | indy
Human Rights in Ireland >>
Green MP Proposes Sweeping Reforms to House of Commons in Maiden Speech Sat Jul 27, 2024 19:00 | Sean Walsh
The sweeping House of Commons reforms proposed by Green MP Ellie Chowns are evidence that the Mrs Dutt-Pauker types have moved from Peter Simple's columns into public life. We're in for a bumpy ride, says Sean Walsh.
The post Green MP Proposes Sweeping Reforms to House of Commons in Maiden Speech appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Heat Pump Refuseniks Risk £2,000 Surge in Gas Bills Sat Jul 27, 2024 17:00 | Richard Eldred
With heat pump numbers forecast to rise, the energy watchdog Ofgem has predicted that bills for those who continue using gas boilers will surge.
The post Heat Pump Refuseniks Risk £2,000 Surge in Gas Bills appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Debt-Funded GB Energy to Bet on the Costliest Electricity Generation Technologies Sat Jul 27, 2024 15:00 | David Turver
So much for Labour's pledge to cut energy bills by £300, says David Turver. Under GB Energy, our bills can only go one way, and that is up.
The post Debt-Funded GB Energy to Bet on the Costliest Electricity Generation Technologies appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Christians Slam Paris Opening Ceremony for Woke Parody of ?Last Supper? Sat Jul 27, 2024 13:00 | Richard Eldred
Awful audio, bizarre performances, embarrassing gaffes and a woke 'Last Supper' parody that has outraged Christians turned the Paris Olympics opening ceremony into a rain-soaked disaster.
The post Christians Slam Paris Opening Ceremony for Woke Parody of ?Last Supper? appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Victorian Laws Against Priests Meddling in Politics Are Now Needed More Than Ever ? To Prevent Imams... Sat Jul 27, 2024 11:46 | Steven Tucker
The Muslim Vote wants Labour to abolish Victorian ?spiritual influence? laws that prevent religious leaders from swaying voters, but Steven Tucker argues that in cities like Leicester these laws are more vital than ever.
The post Victorian Laws Against Priests Meddling in Politics Are Now Needed More Than Ever ? To Prevent Imams Doing the Same appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
Lockdown Skeptics >>
Voltaire, international edition
Netanyahu soon to appear before the US Congress? It will be decisive for the suc... Thu Jul 04, 2024 04:44 | en
Voltaire, International Newsletter N°93 Fri Jun 28, 2024 14:49 | en
Will Israel succeed in attacking Lebanon and pushing the United States to nuke I... Fri Jun 28, 2024 14:40 | en
Will Netanyahu launch tactical nuclear bombs (sic) against Hezbollah, with US su... Thu Jun 27, 2024 12:09 | en
Will Israel provoke a cataclysm?, by Thierry Meyssan Tue Jun 25, 2024 06:59 | en
Voltaire Network >>
limerick |
politics / elections |
press release
Tuesday June 01, 2004 21:46
by Socialist Party
printable version
Digg this
del.icio.us
Furl
Reddit
Technorati
Facebook
Gab
Twitter
View Comments Titles Only
save preference
Comments (33 of 33)
Jump To Comment: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33??
I hope you are doing better in Limerick!
The latest poll doesnt auger well for the SP as a poll a couple of weeks ago had Joe Higgins at 4%. Compared to his showing in 1999 - 3.8%, this must be extremely worrying for the SP. They certainly wont be making any breakthroughs.
Opinion Polls do not give accurate information, there are a whole number of 'health warnings' attached. If I were in the Socialist Party I would not be worried as the poll was taken last Monday among 580 people throughout Dublin.
Even since Monday Joe Higgins has been on the Party political broadcast and has featured prominantly on Questions and Answers. Even on the basis of Monday's poll if one or two more people said they are voting for Joe Higgins he would be up at 4 or 5% That's the nature of a small sample. It would be interesting to see how many were sampled in working class areas where the Socialist Party and Sinn Fein would be stronger.
In general, Monday's poll does show that it looks as if Gay Mitchell and Royston Brady are doing well. After that it's hard to tell as 1-3% separate 5 candidates going for 2 positions. All is to play for.
Now if the polls were favouring Joe Higgins the SP would be hailing them as holy writ. Yes there is a 3% error margin, so Joe could be at 0% or 6%. But this is the second poll in a row to show the SP at a low level, the previous one was showing the SP at 4%. There isnt going to be a SP breakthrough.
There certainly is a lot to play for still regarding the last Euro seat but the SP arent even in the game.
I think SPuppySPotter is only trying to stir an argument. If he had any common sense he would realise that local elections do not have reliable opinion polls. I think you need to look more in depth and at local factors. In terms of the SP I will call it- they will increase their vote. They will win seats in Swords and Mulhuddart and look strong for a seat in Tallaght. Elsewhere in Dublin they have very good chances of winning seats. Howth, 2nd seat in Swords, Dundrum, are all up for grabs. They will do well in South West Inner City. The SWP will not win any seats, they will not get totally humiliated in Ballyfermot and Dun Laoghaire. Elsewhere their prospects are very low as they are not as active at the required depth on community issues as the SP. The various independent lefts will, in general, do well. But will not win any seats.
Predicting elections is not something that Indymedia trollers should do to stir an argument. It's an art, especially in locals where you have to look into local factors and candidates' records.
The poll also covers Dublin for the locals. Its not looking good for independents either. At 8% for others (1999 13%) which includes all independents, SP, SWP and WP, its worrying. There is no sign of any surge towards either the SP or independents. The opposite seems true as there is a 5% drop from 1999.
It looks as if SF at 14% (Dublin locals) has hoovered up the protest vote. Even the Labour party at 21% (1999 18%) is up. No point in fooling ourselves, its not looking good. Dont slay the messenger.
The report sort of ends at the interesting point, the arrival of the Gardai. Could you tell us what reason they gave for being there and what they did when you refused to removed the details? I presume they backed down or did they take peoples names etc? (I presume any arrests would have been mentioned).
Yes it was certainly a waste of Garda time. Have you complained to the local Superintendent and to the Garda complsaints tribunal? I'm sure Joe Higgins will be raising this in the Dail. Actually if the Capitalist swine was paying below the minimum wage then he was breaking the law.
To say someone is or is not going to make gains in local elections you have to assess local factors. These are not given in general polls on voting intentions. In any given local election area you would be lucky to get 2 or 3 on Monday's opinion poll. You cannot draw conclusions from 2 or 3 people.
I think that there is a strong anti-establishment vote. I think Sinn Fein are making gains. I think they are likely to get at least one seat on all 4 Dublin Councils. This is based on looking into local factors. I think Sinn Fein have a good chance of taking an independent's seat in Mulhuddart (Fingal) and taking a seat in Glencullen Ward (Dun Laoghaire Rathdown). In South Dublin they may get 3 or 4 seats. In Dublin City they will also make gains in votes and seats.
The Socialist Party are also highly likely to gain. Their candidates are well known and well placed to take the anti-establishment vote. It's a certainty they will retain their 2 seats in Fingal and may get as many as 4 or even 5 seats there. In South Dublin Mick Murphy is doing well in Tallaght Central, also Maher in Dundrum is doing well according to a number of sources.
Labour will probably increase their seat count accross the country. But I don't see ant spectatular seat gain in Dublin. Labour are seen as part of the establishment in working class areas and are being outflanked on the left by independents, Sinn Fein, Socialist Party etc. The various non-party lefts will not make any serious breakthrogh. Their best chances are Perry or Mooney due to the backing from Tony Gregory. Michael Gallagher will not do well at all. Joan Collins will poll resonably well but will not win a seat.
All my predictions are based on FACTS, and looking into the LOCAL FACTORS. "SPuppySPotter" is just out to stir up shit. For heaven's sake just look at his name!
Stop hiding behind the presumed authority of 'tallyman'. If you are confident in these predictions, make them under your own name.
Your prediction is at least 4 seats, right, possibly more? Why not put your name to it?
I think you mean opinions. You have carried out no polls in the areas you mention so you are doing a DeValera, looking into your own heart. The poll shows that the vote for others is 8% , thats down 5% on the 1999 outcome. Surely if there was a m,ovement towards the SP and Indepoendents it would be reflected to some extent in the poll. Instead the opposite has occurred, there has been a fall of 5% in the showing of "others".
Your raging against Labour does not alter the fact that they are on 21% in the local polls, up 3% on the 1999 outcome. Wishful thinking is not going to get results. Hard work will. If you want candidates of the left to be elected then get out and canvass.
Ray- I'm a graduate of Political Science from Trinity College. I specialised in opinion polls in 3rd year. I am not going to put my name on indymedia as in my workplace I am not allowed go on non-work related websites. Just take it as genuine please. I'm not trolling or trying to stir arguments. I'm putting forward my arguments in a sensable way.
Much of my opinion is based on polls. I've talked to and seen tallies from a number of parties in the areas I've talked about. Canvass returns are not totally reliable and you usually have to downplay them. But it's all a political scientist has in a local election. I've also looked into local factors. For example how well know a candidate is, how well they are placed to take an anti-establishment vote. For example in Glencullen SF's candidate is not well known for his political activism but he is the only anti-establishment candidate running. There are also a number of working class estates in Glencullen ward.
I am seriously making predictions with 'health warnings' attached. "SPuppySPotter" is making predictions with not 'health warnings' and no facts.
Your boss isn't going to know who you are if you use your first name on indymedia. My boss wouldn't exactly shower me with praise for being here during working hours, but using my first name is not like ccing him on every post, is it?
It would also help if you posted your party allegiance. It looks to me, and everyone else I'm sure, that you're a member of the SP, which is why your predictions are so optimistic. Why not say so?
Finally, I have to say, your predictions are not just optimistic, they're fantastic. As far as I can see, you think SF and SP are going to end up with a roughly equal number of seats, right? The only way you could believe this is if you are getting all of your information from SP sources, and ignoring everything else.
Ray, you don't know my boss!
Seriously. I don't think that SF and SP will end up with similar results. SF will win far more seats and may well be the largest single party on the City Council. I think that the SP will increase their vote and win at least one new seat. These is a chance of 3 or 4 other new seats. I do not have any party alliengence. I do know members of SP, Labour, SWP and FF from my time in Trinity. Personally, I would place my self on the left of the political spectrum and will be voting for Joe Higgins in the Euro elections. That does not make me a SP member. Ray, if you think I'm optimistic for the SP I would say you should look into it more. I think that where they have well known candidates they may win seats. The same goes for SF, although their candidates benefit from a sinn fein "party vote".
...your boss is going to need more than that to recognise you. And there are much, much easier ways for your boss to find out what web sites you are visiting that by surfing around and trying to find people posting under your first name. So come on, seriously, why won't you use your name?
(I'm making a big deal out of this because I think people think more about what they post, and troll less, if they are accountable. There are always complaints on indymedia - possibly from you, since I don't know your name - about anonymous trolls. The more people who aren't anonymous, the better)
Re the equivalency of SF and the SP, at 11.38 you said that SF were likely to get at least one seat in each council, and have a good chance of getting a few more. The SP are 'certain' to retain their two seats, will win seats in Mulhuddart and Swords, and have good chances of winning four more seats. That certainly gives the impression that you think the two parties will end up about the same.
So, how about you give us your first name, and make an artistic prediction, based on the facts, of the overall results in Dublin?
""SPuppySPotter" is making predictions with not 'health warnings' and no facts."
I have pointed out the margin of error in the polls. I am basing my analysis on published polls. For all we know you could be making up yoour stuff. We have no way of knowing.
What we do know is that Joe Higgins is at 3% in a poll which was profesionally carried out. So with a margin of error he could be at 0% or 6%. In 1999 he got 3.8%.
Others are at 8% in a poll which was profesionally carried . So with a margin of error they could be at 5% or 11%. In 1999 others got 13%.
If there was any swing towards "others" it would be reflected in these polls. The opposite is the case.
Remember the latest poll is taken from a random sample of 580 people around Dublin. So, there would be 2 or 3 in any ward if lucky. The others catagory always go up as when faced with a ballot paper with well known local candidates voters will place preferences differently than if they were stopped on Grafton St and asked about parties. The 'others' catagory always goes up on election day.
Did you really study polls? If you did then you would not be spouting this nonsense. Now if you want to challenge the professionalism of Landsdowne do so. If you want to challenge the validity of any or all polls do so.
But quit the gobblrygook. Its seems that if a poll result suits your purposes then you will use it. If not you'll sneer at it.
The polls carried out by Landsdowne are carried out in the standard manner, weighted for various social categories. They have an error margin of + or - 3%.
If there was a surge towards "others" throughout Dublin then it would be reflected in these polls.
went up by between .9 and 2% between the last pre-election poll and the 2002 vote. So unless the margin of error is completely with the Others, and the poll is different by as much as the most different of the other polls, Others have gone down since the last election. They certainly haven't gone up.
The bigger the Constituencies the more reliable the 'others' figure will be. Just htink about it for a while. If someone does a survey of 500 people around the country. It's likely they will be from 500 different wards. In each ward the term "others" means different things. There can be right-wing independents, left wing independents, candidates with good record, candidates with no records, there are also small parties included such as SP, WP, CSP, SWP etc. etc. It is not reliable to quote figures for "others" in the locals and conclude that someone in a given ward will or will not get elected.
It's widely predicted on Politics.ie that Mick Barry, Mick Murphy and Lisa Maher will win seats. It's also predicted that Clare Daly and Ruth Coppinger will retain seats.
"It is not reliable to quote figures for "others" in the locals and conclude that someone in a given ward will or will not get elected."
Of course not, because they are total figures. Nor is it reliable to quote total FF figures and conclude that a particular FF candidate will or won't get elected. But if FF are running at 30% in the polls that indicates the total number of votes FF will get. And you can work from there to look at individual candidates.
The polls indicate that the total Others vote will be down. If you want to argue that the SP share of that vote is going to go up, you have to explain why they are going to get a larger share of the Others vote this time, large enough to counter the overall Others fall.
The polls aren't perfect predictors, by any means. But if you're going to argue that they are bad predictors of the SP vote in particular, you need a reason other than optimism. (and the optimism of posters on politics.ie isn't a good reason either)
And what's the current excuse for not posting your first name?
You have obviously not studied tallies or results from Howth or Glencullen becuase had you done so you would know that the SP and SF have not a hope of winning a seat in either.
Yes, they may do well in certain areas but their base is far too small. Howth in particular is about the last place in Dublin that the SP could win a seat. If he gets 300 that will be doing well. Likewise, 500 for SF in Glencullen would be repsectable.
As for politics.ie user, the only people predicting the SP gains you claim are two SP members!
Would youse amateur psephologists not consider stopping yeer idle speculatation, and maybe do a bit of canvassing for your favourites
". Howth in particular is about the last place in Dublin that the SP could win a seat. If he gets 300 that will be doing well. "
I am going to have a good laugh at you trolls on June 12!!
SPuppySPotter, is a troll, people should just ignore him. Don't feed the trolls!
The SP didn't even run a candidate in Howth in 1999, and its currently two FGs and and FF. What makes you so confident the SPnis going to win a seat there?
And did your parents really name you 'f'? What were they, dadaists?
There is not a chance that the SP will take a seat in Howth. The left vote there is small and it will be split between the SP and SF, with either doing extremely well to get more than 400 votes.
I am curious indeed as to what even makes you think that you will get a seat there?
I get the impression overall in fact that the SP has very little knowledge of its support base or any genuine feel for the response they get in areas.
Really now, all of my analysis is based on published polls. Whereas the spuppies base theirs on wishful thinking.
You cannot ignore the facts that Joe Higgins is at 3% in the polls and that "others" are at 8% a fall of 5% from 1999. There is no sign of any surge towards the SP or (unfortunately) other left and independents. The opposite is the case.
f is the Troll.
The fact is that you do not take into account that it's impossible to conclude the SP or SF or FF or Labour etc will or will not win a seat in any particular ward based on that poll. The smaller the constituencies the harder it is to determine the results with accuracy based on an all Dublin poll. Maybe you should look into it more and see if the various party members have access to things other than the polls. SPuppySPotter have you seen canvass returns? Have you looked into candidates profiles? Stop trolling you idiot.
Stop putting Dublin before your name, you are bringing our proud city into disrepute.
"The fact is that you do not take into account that it's impossible to conclude the SP or SF or FF or Labour etc will or will not win a seat in any particular ward based on that pol"
I do take it into account. The ffact that others are on 8% will not tell me if Lisa Maher will take a seat or whether Joan Collins will take a seat. However the fact that the vote for others is down 5% from 1999 would suggest that its highly unlikely that the SP or left independents are going to make big gains, unless the SP vote is going up while the rest of "others" has fallen dramatically. This seems highly unlikely given that Joe Higgins is at 3% in the Euro polls, down 1% from 1999.
Unless you produce the other information you claim to have then its obvious that you just spouting another lot of SP lies.
I see ray is not so quick to ask for the pathetic SPuppySPotter's name. To the aforementioned troll I will say only this, tommorrow week you'll have your tail between your legs. You are fairly pathetic when you have nothing better to do than troll. Its unhealthy to be so obsessed with a political party you are not a member of.
Ray, you should know better than to encourage him/her. Why is trolling ok when aimed at the SP (or SWP for that matter) but when aimed anywhere else its a cardinal sin.
What have I said or done to encourage anyone to post anonymously?
I think _everyone_ should post under their real name, or at the least under a stable and consistent alias. I make that point when I reply to someone who isn't uing such a name. Since I haven't replied to 'Tallyman', I haven't said it to him, but I'll happily say it now - Use your real name.
And I'll say it to you again - Use your real name.
If you're not ashamed of what you're posting, and don't want to be able to deny it was you posting it, you have no reason not to use your name, at least your first name. Your boss isn't going to know that the Paddy posting here is the Paddy that works for him, even if he does happen to read indymedia. And if your boss wants to know what websites you visit, he can monitor your internet connection at work and all the aliases in the world won't help you.
So use your real name, if you want to have any credibility.
All I have done is point out the SPs showing in the 2 polls carried out in Dublin, the latest of which shows Joe Higgins at 3%. This poll also shows in the locals others (including all independents, SP, SWP, WP, CSP etc) at 8% DOWN 5% from 1999. Now this clearly suggests that there is not a surge towards either the SP or (unfortunately) other Lefts and left independents.
Quit the abuse, dont slay the messenger. Tell you what, I'll give my name if Dublin Tallyman and We Are The Borg (oops I mean SP) reveal theirs. They might also reveal what they base their expectations on other than wishful thinking.