No attack on Iran

by Vince Mon Oct 20, 2008 13:49

The Israelis and Americans are unlikely to be interested in regime change in Iran.
Their chief concern is Iran's nuclear industry.
Three options worth considering:
(a) If Iran is indeed seeking to acquire nuclear weapons to threaten the Israeli state and American power in the Gulf, the Israelis and Americans will be concerned with destroying that capability.
(b) If Iran is pursuing peaceful nuclear programs, it is in the interests of Israel and America to cripple those programs as long Iran is hostile to Israel and American power in the Gulf.
(c) If their was regime change in Iran (most unlikely since there exists no opposition powerful enough to overthrow the theocracy) and a friendly pro-Western pro-Israeli regime was established then Israel and America would have the same attitude to Iran nuclear programs as it does to Pakistani and Indian nuclear programs.

The deciding factor is that Israelis and Americans possess superior airpower. Iran has a fleet of hundreds of antiquated fighter jets which would be turned into twisted junk sprinkled over the mountains if it seriously attempted to engage a combined Israeli-American air attack on its nuclear facilities.
The Iran's possess scores of ballistic missiles but superior anti-missile technology developed since the days when Saddam fired Scuds at Tel Aviv would tackle most of those weapons in flight before they could cause serious military and civilian casualties.
The Iranians might attack shipping in Persian Gulf, but the massive US Navy presence would sent most of its vessels to the bottom.

The only edge Iran has over the Israelis and Americans is the vast size of the conscript army it could field to attack the Iraq or Kuwait.

However without air superiority, hundreds of thousands of soldiers on foot or riding aboard armoured vehicles would be sitting ducks beneath Israeli and American bombs.

The only options for Iran if wants to continue its nuclear programs:
(a) Agree to greater international inspection of its nuclear program, abandon its anti-Israeli and American propaganda, make peace with the West and recieve Western expertise and investment, that would develop its economy and introduce slow democratic reforms to avoid a seismic shock revolution that would tear the country apart.
(b) Continue to defy the Israelis and Americans, playing right into their hands, invite massive air strikes, lose their nuclear programs, distabilise domestic politics in the country and bring down the theocratic regime in a bloody disaster.

The attack on Iran could come before the end of January before Obama enters the White House as George W Bush goes out with a bang.

or

President Obama, a new man in the White House, American credibility restored, with the backing a Democratic Senate and Congress and the good will of the American people and the world could sanction the very military action that Bush would have been roundly condemned.