Israeli minister threatens “destruction of the Iranian nation”

by Tim Thu Apr 10, 2008 17:17

The arms race and huge modern military machines were created by the Great Powers to prevent a possible war.
The idea was that the outbreak of conflict would be too costly.
Instead we had WW1.

The conflict between the US and USSR was decided in proxy wars on the global chessboard instead of a full scale nuclear exchange that would have extinguished all life on the planet.

A nuclear Israel and a soon-to-be nuclear Iran would not extinguish life on earth and therefore an exchange between both sides is not unthinkable. If a dozen or more Israeli nukes obliterated the cities of Iran, millions would die and the environmental price would be high but it would not lead to the destruction of civilisation though economic consequences would be considerable.
The world would recover.

The 21st century might witness a similar localised nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan or China and India or China and Japan.

A truly terrifying prospect.

by Robin Thu Apr 10, 2008 17:56

Tim,

Could you post here the evidence you have to support your claims that Iran is a "soon to be " Nuclear threat. I mean, the whole coversation takes on a different slant entirely depending on whether we accept or dont accept the "soon to be " a nuclear threat claims.

So lets not waste time presuming Iran is soon to be Nuclear armed lets just see the evidence before we waste time to go down that road please.

by Badintel Thu Apr 10, 2008 23:59

It used to be the case that "bad intelligence" was characterised by the fact that it might be false and the subsequent plan would be illconceived.
Now "bad intelligence" seems to be defined by the possibility that it might be right and it doesnt suit the preconceived plan.

From he featured article :

" The Israeli government was bitterly critical of the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released in December, which found that the Iranian regime had ended any nuclear weapons program in 2003. "

How can we bomb Iran and scare the shit out of our people for the next 5 years with bad intelligence like that ?.... Some deranged Israeli politician can be heard to say to his American couterpart.

by A10 Fri Apr 11, 2008 14:32

If the Isrealis use some fiery rherotic???Hasn't ol whats his head in Threan been yelling about destruction of Isreal for a good while as well??

by Tim Fri Apr 11, 2008 14:41

Let's not be naive.

Iran is seeking nuclear technology at a time when the major powers on the Eurasian continent are nuclear powers - Russia, China, India, Pakistan. In Iraq, Turkey,

And as you can see on the accompanying map, Iran is surrounded by countries in which there is a considerable US military presence.

There is no doubt that this is contributing to Iran's drive to become a nuclear power.

Every country in the world that possess nuclear power stations also either possesses or has the means to create nuclear weapons and deliver them to targets in the event of war.

The threat of a pre-emptive strike on Iran by Israel or other enemies could produce a pre-emptive strike by Iran on israel which would be a logical tactic if you were a patriotic Iranian who is worried of being attacked by "crusaders" on your borders.

The Western powers are understandably scared that Iran who support fund and arm Hezbollah or Iraqi insurgents will use nuclear technology for terrorist purposes with Hezbollah or Iraqi insurgents as the vehicle of delivery (a dirty bomb) or nuclear tipped ballistic missiles.

The CIA in particular is likely preparing to fund and arm some kind of pro-western Iranian movement to bring down the Iranian regime because the powers that be in Washington DC have convinced themselves there is an imminent threat.

Both sides therefore have convinced themselves that they are under imminent threat of attack.

by Tim Fri Apr 11, 2008 14:49

If Iran developed viable nuclear weapons for its ballistic weapons this map shows the range of its nuclear stike capability.

by Robin Fri Apr 11, 2008 14:54

Tim,

I didnt suggest that Iran or elements within iran did not harbour desires to become a nuclear armed state, I simply asked you to provide evidence to support your claims that Iran is soon to be a Nuclear armed state. Two completely different debates.

I think you will have difficulty finding the evidence, and in the case that you cant then I merely suggest that you go down a different route in this debate other than to presume Iran is to soon be a nuclear armed state in contradiction to the available information. That would be logical.

To presume to debate on the basis that Iran is soon to have nuclear weapons is not logical unless you have evidence it is sensationalist and counterproductive to calm and reasonable deliberation.

by Tim Fri Apr 11, 2008 15:28

The Iranian President has announced that Iran is operating 3,000 centrifuges.
These centrifuges can be used to produce nuclear fuel or weapons grade material.

by tomeile Fri Apr 11, 2008 15:39

After Dick Cheney’s visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia at the end of last month , a leading Saudi newspaper ,Okaz , reported that the Saudi Shura Council immediately started planning to deal with “sudden nuclear and radioactive hazards that may affect the kingdom” . According to the Riydah based Arab News these plans are in response to indications that Iranian nuclear facilities may be bombed in the near future by either Israel or America.
Scientists in America have used Pentagon-devised software to measure the impact of a "limited" nuclear attack on the main Iranian underground nuclear site in Esfahan , predicting three million deaths by radiation within two weeks. see:
http://www.chris-floyd.com/content/view/1463/135/

by Tim Fri Apr 11, 2008 15:55

The presence of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan garantees mutually assured destruction.
The same goes for potential flashpoints in the Eurasian continent.
India and China went to war in the early 1960's. A future conflict could be decided with nuclear weapons.
China went to war with Russia over the territory around the Amur river in
China and Japan are both nuclear armed and the emnity from WW2 days has never gone away.
The logical step by the Saudis would be to go nuclear.
Probably Egypt too.
Gaddaffi's Libya has made an alliance with the US and Europe.
A blind eye might be turned there too.

by A10 Fri Apr 11, 2008 19:33

Covering NORTH Korean missiles in Iran?????
AFIK N korea and Iran are not building any missiles together at all. N Korea has got some sort of crude atomic bomb ,that they cant put on their No Dong missile[love that name] and Iran hasnt got either nuke bomb or missile yet capable of carrying it.

by Robin Fri Apr 11, 2008 21:15

3000 Centrifuges ? Wow... that sure sounds like a lot. But as I am not a Nuclear Scientist I really dont know how that poses as evidence that Iran is soon to be a nuclear armed state.

Could you please provide the relevant info that proves that the presence of 3000 centrifuges is proof that a state is a soon to be nuclear armed threat.

For example, go to the IAEA website , get a report and show where they have concluded after their extensive studies on Iranian Nuclear research that they are "soon to be " nuclear armed.

Some evidence of what you are claiming , any evidence would do.

by Tim Sat Apr 12, 2008 08:44

The uranium is loaded into the disc shaped centrifuge which spins at a high speed separating the various uranium isoptopes especially the U238 which is the primary ingredient used in nuclear weapons.
With one centrifuge this process would take many years.
However if there are thousands of centrifuges operating at once the process can be repeated on an industrial scale.
The time period in which one can produce large amounts of weapons grade uranium 238 is reduced to months.

by Robin Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:38

Tim,

That the Iranians are enriching Uranium is not a matter for debate. We know that they are.

That they are soon to be a nuclear armed state is the question at hand.

You have accepted this as a fact apparently, I merely want to see the evidence upon which you want the rest of the world to concur with your position.

by Tim Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:12

Iran does not need 3,000 centrifuges if its nuclear program is purely for civilian use.
Uranium for power generation only needs about 3.5 % enrichment to be used in a reactor.
It needs to be enriched to 90% to be used in a bomb.
Thousands of centrifuges are need to achieve weapons grade uranium enrichment and with 3,000 centrifuges operating Iran has the means of doing this.
Faced with external threats from the US and israel it will be forced to do if it has not already done so.
Currently Iran's oil resources will last it about a century while it has experienced an enormous population increase that requires alternative energy sources.
Oil resources in Iraq and Saudi Arabia would be prizes worth grabbing.
That would require a victory over the US military in Iraq and the destruction of Israel.
Iran has been quite openly supporting Lebanon Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiites especially the forces of Muqtada Al-Sadr.
It's obvious therefore that Iran seeks to be a nuclear power.

If it looks like a duck, qwacks like a duck, waddles like a duck etc etc.

by Tim Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:23

The Christian Right and the Islamic fundementalists in Iran both geuinely believe that their is an eschatological struggle underway influenced by supernatural forces.
The Christian Right believe that the Revelation is happening as we speak and that Gog and Magog (Iran) led by the false Prophet (Muhammed) are going to rise up and surround the beloved city (Jerusalem) and fire from heaven will burn them up.
The quotation Rev 20:9 is their touchstone.
Ahmedinijad is a follower of the 12th Imam, the hidden imam, who is foretold to return as the Mahdi and fight the infidel before the end of the world.

by tomeile Sat Apr 12, 2008 15:27

The Irish Anti War Movement should address this issue as a matter of urgency –there’s nothing on their website about it at the moment . It needs to ask the government whether they have any knowledge of plans to attack the Iranian nuclear power station . The Irish people are entitled to know what the effect on public health here would be in the event of such an attack.

by Fred Johnston Sat Apr 12, 2008 15:54 sylfredcar at iolfree dot ie

One suspects sabre-rattling here, because Israel would have to get the go-ahead from the US, first and foremost, to do this and right now - whatever about later - anything which would consolidate anti-Israeli, and therefore anti-American feeling in the Middle East is the last thing Bush needs. But that Israel should be permitted by the international community to issue such threats against another country is deplorable, of course; not that any country will come out and say so, least of all Ireland.

by tomeile Sat Apr 12, 2008 18:05

Fred’s assessment is that the last thing Bush needs Bush is anti-American feeling in the Middle-East .But surely everything Bush has done since taking office points the other way . Cheney did visit Israel before going to Saudi Arabia last month where he was made very welcome ;the American vice President is in complete accord with the Israeli position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions -that Iran is trying to arm itself with nuclear weapons - and so is George Bush.On April 18, 2006, Bush said publicly that a nuclear strike against Iran is an option 'on the table.'

In January of last year , Israel described Iran’s nuclear programme as an “existential threat” to the Jewish state which should be stopped before Iranian scientists manage to produce a nuclear bomb. Around the same time, the Sunday Times reported that two Israel Air Force squadrons had been training to blow up an enrichment plant in Natanz using low-yield nuclear "bunker busters. The installation of the centrifuges could well be the tipping point for Israel . Pentagon sources told the Times in 2007 ,"Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges”.

by Lone Gunman Sat Apr 12, 2008 19:26

Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has raised doubts about whether al Qaeda's Sept. 11, 2001 attack on New York actually took place. He was addressing Iran’s Nuclear Technology day on April 8, 2008 when he made the comment. He went on to ask why the US had never released the names of the thousands of dead in the Trade Center attacks and how the most advanced security, intelligence and tracking devices in the world had failed to detect the hijackers’ planes before they struck the two New York towers.

by Robin Sun Apr 13, 2008 15:29

' If it looks like a duck, qwacks like a duck, waddles like a duck etc etc. "

This is your proof, Tim ?

Seem to me from this article which by a strange coincidence was written exactly 2 years ago to the day, that Iran is only doing exactly what it said it would do in pursuit of it' s legal Nuclear research program.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world//////2006-04/13/cont...0.htm

" Saeedi said Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it plans to install 3,000 centrifuges at its facility in the central town of Natanz by late 2006, then expand to 54,000 centrifuges, though he did not say when.

"We will expand uranium enrichment to industrial scale at Natanz," Deputy Nuclear Chief Mohammad Saeedi told state-run television.

Saeedi said using 54,000 centrifuges will be able to produce enough enriched uranium to provide fuel for a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power plant like one Russia is finishing in southern Iran. "

Tim, I think you should either provide your evidence that Iran is about to be a Nuclear armed state or clarify that this is merely a personal opinion of yours. An opinion that seems to be based on a lack of understanding of Nuclear Science and a fleeting interest in Ducks.

by tomeile Sun Apr 13, 2008 16:27

The government is issuing a booklet tomorrow outlining plans to reduce the number of casualties in the event of a nuclear incident.or other other emergencies The booklet will be launched by Bertie Ahern and Defence Minister Willie O'Dea at the National Emergency Co-ordination Centre, at Agriculture House which will be used as a control room during a crisis . Copies of the booklet iare to be distributed free to all householders in Ireland over the coming weeks.see:

http://www.independent.ie/health/lastest-news/iodine-ta....html

The IAWM should attend the launch and ask whether the booklet’s publication has anything to do with the plans for war being made against Iran and the possible use of nuclear weapons in such a war . It should ask whether resources at the new centre will be adequate to deal with the fallout from an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

by Timpleton Sun Apr 13, 2008 17:29

Guys, read SOMETHING at least before posting. Even wikipedia is quite informative.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_centrifuge

The IAEA has said that everything Iran is doing is within the terms of the NPT (unlike US,Israel,Pakistan,India,Russia,UK,etc)

Iran has about 3000 centrifuges I think (sept 2007 figure). These aren't all up and working quite as well as Ahmadinnerjacket would have you believe.
Aljazeera reported 1968 of them working as of august 19th 2007
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/87F44966-98BD-45...6.htm

Washington post wants you to believe they are planning 54000 centrifuges.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...world

Yeah, and Ireland are planning a proper health service and good public transport infrastructure. Some desperate sabre rattling and persian pride talking here I think, feeding into the plans of US hawks

Centrifuges are used to isolate heavier isotopes of Uranium in gaseous form from lighter ones. Uranium is converted to a gas UF6 which is fed into cascades of spinning centrifuges, the output seperates slightly into heavier and lighter isotopes(heavier U238 stream and lighter U235 stream) which are fed back into the cascades, over and over until the U235 and U238 streams are of a decent concentration.

In state of the art setups like those in the US, 1000 (proper) centrifuges with clean raw material, operating for a year can arm one weapon. With a third world setup, incomplete knowledge of the best practices of the processes, dodgy centrifuges, and a very serious problem with molybdenum contamination which clogs the tubes, You're talking one bomb in 10 years. It's well known that all things going well, Iran is at least 5-10 years from getting the raw materials for just 1bomb

Even the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate about Iran´s nuclear program concludes that there has been no on-going nuclear weapons program in Iran since the fall of 2003. That's the US spooks talking. They should know.

If Iran finally made a bomb in the next 10 years, big deal. Israel already has 200-500nukes.
They get one shot, the US missile defence shoots it down then shortly after, tehran reaches 2000 degrees centigrade

US has 10000 nukes, 7000 on hair trigger
Russia has a similar number
Israel has 200-500
pakistan,in political and religious turmoil, has about 35-95
Iran has....well...NONE!
who are we complaining about??
does it make any rational sense??

Can't you see it's all bullshit to excuse an incursion and occupation of the oil rich strip of Iran. Is there no deja vu here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q63lVpDVi40

by paul o toole Tue May 13, 2008 15:58

Read Scott Ritte3rs report on Iran or go to the IAEA website. Iran is no threat .
Dont get into a debate about it, rather counter the argument with facts.
He was the Man in 1992 and again in 1998 said that Iraqs threat to the west is ZERO.
Israel, the UK and the US have enough nuke power to eliminate All life on earth within 45 minutes
.........more than 30 times over......Their nukes are called ' A deterrant', everyone elses is a 'threat' .