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Tuesday February 13, 2007 23:10
by tom eile
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Jump To Comment: 3 2 1With the release in the last week or two by the Russians of intelligence that the US was going to attack Iran on Good Friday, it would seem that the recent Iranian episode was all linked to this because they managed to run a good PR campaign and came out looking good, especially with release the British soldiers on Wednesday. So if the US had then attacked today as allegedly planned, it would have looked pretty aggressive and any pretext had been pulled out from under their feet. And getting the PR right on a war is the critical thing.
This means it's going to take another few weeks for the US to allow the present situation to die-down and then try again later.
Dubya is in difficulty on the domestic front. A bill before congress for additional funding for the 'war' was shot down as it did not contain any commitment to withdraw troops from Iraq. An emergency supplemental bill was passed instead which had stringent conditions attached including troop withdrawal. A new bill is currently being drafted by senators for submission next week that will effectively end funding early next year.
This has enraged the bush administration to the point that dubya has announced he will veto the bill. An act of political suicide for whomever the republicans run in 2008.
He has also come under fire over his attempt to load the US attorney’s office with compliant hacks in an effort to prevent any legal assaults on him from legislature level. This scandal could well cost Gonzales his job and further strip from Bush a layer of legal protection from Impeachment.
Attacking Iran was always part of the neo-conservative agenda and was an iatrical part of their objectives in the Middle East as proscribed by the PNAC. That agenda now lies in tatters, with most of its authors either discredited or removed from the administration in disgrace. Attacking Iran has now slipped further and further down the list of priorities facing Bush at this time. Although he has the power to order an attack (which would most likely be a 'surgical' strike of some sort) his advisors will be aware of the general mood in the US which is one of extreme anger with Bush and the war. An escalation or an unnecessary act of aggression could trigger impeachment on a number of issues with the publics support.
We know have to hope that Bush has not completely lost his mind and is subject to the normal political pressures that effect political decision making everywhere.
Yes there was a rumour going around at the end of March that the USA would launch a sneak assault against Iran right about now, Friday 6th April. Looks like that attack might not be occurring after all.
It does seem as though a USA strike against Iran is imminent, however. They have been increasing their military presence in the Persian gulf. It's likely we'll see an attack soon.