NotLW.003: Lebanon, Peaking Oil & the Praetorian State

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 01:03

It may be that that hawks are thinking this way: Destroy Lebanon, and destroy Hizbullah, and you reduce Iran's strategic depth. Destroy the Iranian nuclear program and you leave it helpless and vulnerable to having done to it what the Israelis did to Lebanon. You leave it vulnerable to regime change, and a dragooning of Iran back into the US sphere of influence, denying it to China and assuring its 500 tcf of natural gas to US corporations. You also politically reorient the entire Gulf, with both Saddam and Khamenei gone, toward the United States. Voila, you avoid peak oil problems in the US until a technological fix can be found, and you avoid a situation where China and India have special access to Iran and the Gulf.

The second American Century ensues. The "New Middle East" means the "American Middle East."

And it all starts with the destruction of Lebanon.

More wars to come, in this scenario, since hitting Lebanon was like hitting a politician's bodyguard. You don't kill a bodyguard just to kill the bodyguard. It is phase I of a bigger operation.

If the theory is even remotely correct, then global warming is not the only danger in continuing to rely so heavily on hydrocarbons for energy. Green energy--wind, sun, geothermal-- is all around us and does not require any wars to obtain it. Indeed, if we had spent as much on alternative energy research as we have already spent on the Iraq War, we'd be much closer to affordable solar. A choice lies ahead: hydrocarbons, a 20 foot rise in sea level, and a praetorian state. Or we could go green and maybe keep our republic and tame militarism.

a long read, but worth reading and
thinking about....
http://www.juancole.com/2006/08/one-ring-to-rule-them-w....html

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 01:09

Do American’s feel a growing need to justify the war in Iraq?

Watch the short CNN video:
(quicktime 2.5megs)
http://radio.indymedia.org/uploads/caffertyfile-saddam-...d.mov

read discussion of this video at
http://www.crooksandliars.com/posts/2006/08/05/cafferty...iraq/

———

Denial is a psychological defense mechanism in which a person faced with a fact that is uncomfortable or painful to accept rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference). The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial

Feb 06: 35% - July 06: 50%

by Paul R - . Mon Aug 07, 2006 04:02 tarbhmaith at imagine dot ie

The American ruling class may be in denial now, but I believe it was a case that they went into Iraq and elsewhere thinking it would be easy (a bit like the cavalry coming to save the day like John Wayne....Bush watched too many movies and believed them, he should have listened to Gill Scott Heron instead).

That being said the initial stages of the war certainly were easy (except for the poor fuckers doing the job) but they got arrogant and decided to follow throgh on their wish list of the domino effect of spreading their version of a liberal representeative democracy (......only after Sistani forced them to, otherwise it was going to be an American Kleptocracy headed by Bremner) that they believed that they could control the respective levers of power (as they have done for years through their proxies in the arab world saudi Arabia etc). In that arrogance they also decided that they could benefit their friends in hallibourton etc.

In this process, the lack of genuine understanding of the cleavages not just religious but national within the middle east, compounded the problem of corruption and the socio-economic fact that so many were unemployed (not just due to self inflicted de-baathification but also there was no infrastructure to speak of outside of the oil industry) is there to be seen by all. If you had a reasonable job then you would not have too much time to fight (simplistic but...). The worse thing is that they keep digging. Nothing learnt.

I can not remember where I read it but Bush had to be educated that there were at least two sects within Islam. I know he is not an idiot but how one could decide to invade a country and not know that the Shiites were a majority and they had been discriminated against for years is beyond me. Maybe he thought aqll Arabs were as nice as his friends in the Saudi Arabian pliable, corrupt and morally reprehensible oligarchy.

They still have not learnt as their cack handed efforts to push through a UN resolution that soooo favours Israel vis a vis Lebannon.

Watching Fox today (for my many sins) and the wind is totally taken out of the commentators sails (Bill Kristol was positively subdued), shows me that it is not just Bush that suffers from a lack of any real understanding.

They took things for granted and now they have no clue why they are failing.

They have empowered one of their main world wide enemies shiite fundamentalism, and if Hezzbollah arte a sign of things this fundamentalism is a more potent enemy that the Sunni zealots in Al Queda and the resurgent Taliban.

They could not walk the talk.

by Paul R - . Mon Aug 07, 2006 06:35

All the above posts showes me I I am thinking on too small scale, my only hope is that the budhites could not organise anything on this scale but....

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 13:54

'Paul R: I can not remember where I read it but Bush had to be educated that there were at least two sects within Islam. I know he is not an idiot but how one could decide to invade a country and not know that the Shiites were a majority and they had been discriminated against for years is beyond me.'

———

A year after his “Axis of Evil” speech before the U.S. Congress, President Bush met with three Iraqi Americans, one of whom became postwar Iraq’s first representative to the United States. The three described what they thought would be the political situation after the fall of Saddam Hussein. During their conversation with the President, Galbraith claims, it became apparent to them that Bush was unfamiliar with the distinction between Sunnis and Shiites.

[The son of the late economist John Kenneth] Galbraith reports that the three of them spent some time explaining to Bush that there are two different sects in Islam--to which the President allegedly responded, “I thought the Iraqis were Muslims!”

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Ambassador_claims_sho....html

'I thought the Iraqis were Muslims!'

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 15:30

Arizona’s legislature recently earned national attention by requiring the American flag in all public classrooms. But according to the American Council of Trustees and Alumni (ACTA), Arizona’s leaders left a much bigger problem unsolved: None of the state’s major public universities requires the study of American history.

[....]

As ACTA’s letter also pointed out, such curricula have consequences. When ACTA polled graduating seniors from 55 of our country’s elite colleges and universities, they displayed virtually no knowledge of American history: More than 75 percent of the students polled could not identify James Madison as the father of the Constitution and 65 percent could not identify Harry Truman as the president at the beginning of the Korean War. Yet 98 percent knew that Snoop Doggy Dogg is a famous rapper and 99 percent could identify Beavis and Butthead as television cartoon characters.

[....]

In response, ACTA conducted a review of course requirements of Arizona’s major public universities—the University of Arizona, Arizona State University, and Northern Arizona University. This research revealed that not one of the three universities has an American history requirement for undergraduates. Instead, students can fulfill the schools’ loose history requirements with courses like “Human and Animal Interrelationships from Domestication to the Present” (UA), “Fossil Hominids” (ASU), and “Hollywood & the Social Construction of Crime & Justice” (NAU).

http://www.goacta.org/press/Press%20Releases/7-24-06PR.htm

——————

Why Young Americans Aren't Protesting In The Streets - A Defense
by Julia Rain
Sun Aug 06, 2006 at 05:27:16 AM PDT

Recently, miriam made a comment in which she said:

"I cannot believe that I, and thousands of others of all ages and ethnicities, marched in 90+ degree heat and pouring rain and wind and snow to stop the war in Viet Nam only to have my children and grandchildren sitting on their backsides doing nothing'but talk about bad things are!" Mon Jul 31, 2006 at 09:07:22 PM PDT

I began to respond to her, until I realized that the answer was more suited to a diary.

I am 19. Not one of my high school history classes taught us ANYTHING about the history of this century. At all. I had to learn on my own that Vietnam was a mistake - no teacher ever bothered to tell me....

more at
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/6/82716/99758

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 16:14

Personalized Propaganda

The Israeli propaganda effort is a reliable source of amusement amidst the incalculable violence and destruction. They drops pamphlets, which inform the Lebanese that "Hezbollah is destroying your country and homes," followed by a barrage of American-made bombs that level entire villages. They interrupt radio- and TV broadcasts. Sometimes the images are just scrambled. While watching the news on Al Jazeera, the weather reporter morphs into Hillary Clinton-- a grave injustice to say the least. During a re-run of Hassan Nasrallah's latest televised address, I gleaned valuable information from a banner obscuring his face that read, "I am a member of Hezbollah". But they also individualize their efforts by bombarding cellphones with pre-recorded messages.

Yesterday, a young man named Hassan walked in to Cafe Younes, while I was discussing the shortcomings of Israeli propaganda with the owner of the cafe. Hassan told us of the phone calls he has been receiving from the Israelis, repeatedly between the hours of 4 and 6am. The first time they called, a voice said, "Hassan!" to which this coincidental namesake of the Hezbollah leader responded groggily, "Yes. What is it?" The message continued, "...the coward, is destroying this country." After the third or fourth call, Hassan recognized the number and stopped answering.

There are approximately 34,000 persons named Hassan in Lebanon, according to Information International.

from:
Anecdotes from a Banana Republic
This blog offers satire, news, commentary, media analysis and anecdotes from that borderline-retarded little country, Lebanon. Addendum: which is now in a state of war.
http://anecdotesfromabananarepublic.blogspot.com/2006/0....html

by redjade Mon Aug 07, 2006 18:22

An Iranian Missile Crisis?
April 12, 2006

Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, makes a similar argument about Iran. "I think of war with Iran as the ending of America's present role in the world," he told me this week. "Iraq may have been a preview of that, but it's still redeemable if we get out fast. In a war with Iran, we'll get dragged down for 20 or 30 years. The world will condemn us. We will lose our position in the world."

Brzezinski urges President Bush to slow down and think carefully about his options -- rather than rushing to stop Iran's nuclear program, which by most estimates is five to 10 years away from building a bomb, even after yesterday's announcement. "Time is on our side," says Brzezinski. "The mullahs aren't the future of Iran, they're the past."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20....html

by paul R - . Mon Aug 07, 2006 19:06 tarbhmaith at imagine dot ie

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/dialogue/1098423.html

the 5th August interview

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 12:33

Why doesn't Israel work for peace?
By Silvia Tennenbaum

As a Jew who escaped the Holocaust by moving with my family to America in 1938, I turn on the BBC at night. And what I see are clouds of black smoke, explosions; the dead and the dying - children crying bitterly, cities in ruins. Only yesterday, these piles of rubble in Lebanon were home to thousands. Now, the cars roll out onto the highways, white flags attached to the windshields and doors. More than half a million are homeless.

[....]

Meanwhile, back at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, deep in the heart of the Jewish Lobby, the call to action is, as always, a call for solidarity, for good public relations. Denounce terrorism, suicide bombers and anti-Semitism in all its endless variations, which includes the "self-hatred" of the misguided Jew who asks us to give some thought to where we - obsessed with brutal retaliation - may have gone wrong.

And, it goes without saying, loyal Jews must talk about the Holocaust. Ignore the images of today's dead and dying, and focus on the grainy black-and-white pictures showing the death of Jews in the villages of Poland, at Auschwitz and Sobibor and Bergen-Belsen. We are the first, the only true victims, the champions of helplessness for all eternity.

[....]

The American peace camp reports a sudden massive increase in membership. All over the country, Jews whose consciences have not been crippled are writing in, speaking up, gathering, to raise their voices. Is this not what we have always done? What we were brought up to do? What - since the days of the Bible and the prophets - our forefathers taught us? If Israel had worked for peace as hard as it has worked for war, might it not all be settled now?

Three hundred British Jews took out an ad in the Times of London to ask the question, "What is Israel doing?" This question has now been taken up by Jewish Voice for Peace, and by Alan Sokal and Bruce Robbins who, some years back, placed an ad in The New York Times, that read, "Not in Our Name."

The time is long overdue for Jews to return to their role as the world's conscience, who come to the aid of the dispossessed, the wretched of the earth. Once again, we must join those who demand the end to unjust wars - in Iraq as well as Lebanon - and an unjust occupation in Gaza. We must honor the example of American civil rights workers Andrew Goodman and Michael Schwerner, not that of the mass murderer Baruch Goldstein or Yigal Amir, killer of Yitzhak Rabin.

read the whole essay at...
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-opten044839272au...story

Image from:
Jewish Voice for Peace
[also download the PDF format advert at]
http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org

also see: Israeli Palestinian Conflict 101
http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/publish/101conflict....shtml

Jewish Voice for Peace - jewishvoiceforpeace.org

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 15:44

The loser in Lebanon: The Atlantic alliance

[....]
At issue in the confrontation was a US insistence that an international force (led by France) be deployed to Lebanon prior to the declaration of a ceasefire - a requirement the French thought ludicrous. They weren't the only ones.

"The position that we're taking in the UN is just nuts," a former

White House official close to the US decision-making process said during the negotiations. "The US wants to put international forces on the ground in the middle of the conflict, before there's a ceasefire. The reasoning at the White House is that the international force could weigh on the side of the Israelis - could enforce Hezbollah's disarmament."
[....]

read more at
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH08Ak01.html

What ever happened to Freedom Fries?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 18:03

Iraq PM Criticizes U.S.-Led Attack

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's criticism followed a pre-dawn air and ground attack on an area of Sadr City, stronghold of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia.

Police said three people, including a woman and a child, were killed in the raid, which the U.S. command said was aimed at "individuals involved in punishment and torture cell activities."

One U.S. soldier was wounded, the U.S. said.

Al-Maliki, a Shiite, said he was "very angered and pained" by the operation, warning that it could undermine his efforts toward national reconciliation.

"Reconciliation cannot go hand in hand with operations that violate the rights of citizens this way," al-Maliki said in a statement on government television. "This operation used weapons that are unreasonable to detain someone - like using planes."

He apologized to the Iraqi people for the operation and said "this won't happen again."

Friction between the U.S. military and the Iraqi government emerged as the U.S. military kicks off a military operation to secure Baghdad streets after a surge in Sunni-Shiite violence - much of it blamed on al-Sadr's militia.

Al-Sadr has emerged as a major figure in the majority Shiite community and a pillar of support for al-Maliki.

more at
http://news.aol.com/world/story/_a/iraq-pm-criticizes-u...d=774

Muqtada al-Sadr was once the big scary Arab for all to fear - today he's one of Bush's 'Freedom Lovers'

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 19:52

Disentangling Israeli interests from the rubble of neocon "creative destruction" in the Middle East has become an urgent challenge for Israeli policy-makers. An America that seeks to reshape the region through an unsophisticated mixture of bombs and ballots, devoid of local contextual understanding, alliance-building or redressing of grievances, ultimately undermines both itself and Israel. The sight this week of Secretary of State Rice homeward bound, unable to touch down in any Arab capital, should have a sobering effect in Washington and Jerusalem.

[....] ...Israel and its friends in the United States should seriously reconsider their alliances not only with the neocons, but also with the Christian Right. The largest "pro-Israel" lobby day during this crisis was mobilized by Pastor John Hagee and his Christians United For Israel, a believer in Armageddon with all its implications for a rather particular end to the Jewish story. This is just asking to become the mother of all dumb, self-defeating and morally abhorrent alliances.

more at
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/746312.html

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 20:22

Israel's offensive in Lebanon has "entirely destroyed" the infrastructure of the Hezbollah guerilla group, Olmert said Wednesday.

"I think Hezbollah has been disarmed by the military operation of Israel to a large degree," he said.

"The infrastructure of Hezbollah has been entirely destroyed. More than 700... command positions of Hezbollah were entirely wiped out by the Israeli army. All the population which is the power base of the Hezbollah in Lebanon was displaced," he said.

more at
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745279.html

———

read that again: All the population which is the power base of the Hezbollah in Lebanon was displaced,

Olmert explains that war against/removing 'the population' is an objective of the war.

I look forward to the day he has to explain this quote to the ICC.
...lock 'em up - throw away the keys

by redjade Tue Aug 08, 2006 23:54

redjade note: as we discovered two weeks ago in NotLW.002: Israel and other 'Mistakes' (http://indymedia.ie/article/77427#comment161092) Israel has been planning this invasion for more than a year, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. And today ConsortiumNews.com is putting together the jigsaw puzzle that is showing that Bush and the Israelis have started a two year campaign that ends with 'Regime Change' in Iran - starting with Iran's proxy armies so close to Israel.

Contrary to what you hear on CNN International, this is not a pre-emptive strike by Iran to distract and throw the USA off course - this is about 'neutralising' Israel's enemies close to home first, then hitting Iran in 2007 - after the US November congressional elections.

Meanwhile Ireland's gov't plays an absurd game of supporting the US in Iraq, not supporting Israel's war in Lebanon, and just hoping people don't notice that Ireland is supporting America's build up for a massive war against Iran.

———

ConsortiumNews.com says:

After the May 23 meeting with Bush, Olmert declared that “this is a moment of truth” for addressing Iran’s alleged ambitions to build a nuclear bomb.

In a speech to a joint session of Congress on May 24, Olmert called the possibility of Iran building a nuclear weapon “an existential threat” to Israel, meaning that Israel believed its very existence was in danger.

Two days later, the car bomb killed the Majzoub brothers in Sidon and a new cycle of escalation began. In reaction to the assassinations, Islamic militants fired rockets into Israel, which, in turn, counter-attacked killing one Hezbollah fighter.

[....]

The July 12 incident opened up the floodgates of violence. Israel launched a broad air-and-ground offensive aimed at crushing Hezbollah by blasting apart its strongholds in south Lebanon and destroying much of Lebanon’s economic infrastructure, from roads to communications. Hezbollah launched hundreds of Katyusha rockets into northern Israel.

Besides the almost 1,000 Lebanese who have died, an estimated one million – or about one-fourth of Lebanon's population – were displaced from their homes. The Israeli death toll, both military and civilian, stood at about 100.

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/080806.html

by redjade Mon Aug 14, 2006 12:12

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Hundreds of newly recruited police officers in Fallujah failed to show up for work Sunday after insurgents disseminated pamphlets threatening officers who stayed on the job, according to police officials in the restive western Iraq city.

"We will kill all the policemen infidels," read the pamphlets, "whether or not they quit or are still in their jobs."

Fallujah Police Lt. Mohammed Alwan said that the force, which he estimated had increased to more than 2,000, has now shrunk to only 100. Alwan said that insurgents have killed dozens of policemen in their homes and also attacked family members in a weeks-long intimidation campaign.

A Fallujah police major, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to a fear of reprisals, said that at least 1,400 policemen had left their jobs since Friday, 400 of them police officials above the rank of officer.

from the Los Angeles Times
more at
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/13/223731/900