To Vote or not to Vote...

by iosaf Sun Jun 04, 2006 19:12

today is the run off election between Alan Garcia & Humala.
"between the divil & the deep blue sea"...

last minute polls suggested Garcia has a slight advantage, & will win with a very narrow majority of votes.
My on the ground impression is quite simply this :- The majority of Peruvians who do not live in Peru and live in one city - live in Barcelona. the Last vote saw queues of 3 hours, every Peruvian I know voted. Today in contrast : there have been no queues. I have not heard from any Peruvian I know that he / she voted. The "hispanic migrant" press saw full page adverts for Garcia in every edition, very week since the last vote. At the last moment the PSOE (Spanish socialist party) decided to support Garcia, this occured in the last 48 hours. democracy is a very difficult business, counting votes is very difficult, no-one can pretend that the process whereby Uribe may win a "landslide" second term when less than 50% of those registered to vote did so, and also where it is impossible to know how many "birthright citizens" of Colombia have even seen their birth registered.... is democracy. Perhaps it is more democratic than the UK local elections - 35% participation, perhaps it isn't. But Peru is a very strange place, certainly it is to my mind more "viable" a nation-state than Colombia (which I do not consider "viable" - we simply call a geographic area a country without analysing the limits of "the pale"), so if Peru is "viable" but also not suitable to such "run-off" election processes - where does it go? This week votes will be counted and one of either of two men who do not have the clear support of their populations will be called president...
hmmmmmmmmmm.....
Within the next 18 months Alan Garcia will be subject to a constitutional crises and well mobilised trade union & international solidarity activity and after a bit of a crises which will call for indymedia articles and "beginner guides" & dramatic photos and police beatings, tear-gas, a bit of tweeter on the international markets - we'll see another election - with new candidates - - - we like better.... sin é


if only Ireland was as easy....

by Paul Baynes Tue May 09, 2006 22:57

Interesting stuff Mr. i -

So it's Garcia v. Humala...

Alan Garcia was president from 1985, the time of the dreaded Latin American debt crisis and he took the bold move of declaring that:

- Peru would only spend 10% of the total value of exports on debt service repayments
- Peru would talk directly with creditors, refusing to negotiate through the IMF
- Latin American nations should take a political, cooperative approach to debt

Of course, it resulted in his international isolation, and he has since distanced himself from those policies, but what are you gonna do? It seemed like a rational response...

by Iosaf Tue May 09, 2006 21:56

The first time round Peruvians faced 3 candidates. They might yet rue the day "first past the post but still out right majority style democracy" eliminated Lourdes Flores _very closely_ from the run offs. Oh she was the first to be upset and reluctant about it. But thats the things with politicians - they don't like losing elections, which is why they are so often tempted to fix them. http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026281.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_national_election..._2006

Venezuelan press might not seem relevant to a Peruvian election. Its a country on the other side of continent _at its stoutest point_. They don't share common history, they don't even share common economic or social or ethnic profiling. But since Venezuela lost its diplomatic missions to Peru because of its president's "intefering" in its elections; * by openly funding the nationalist candidate * by using the sole trans-continental TV station to insult the now only remaining other candidate * by generally just being the type of guy we all know and love, the Peruvian election is getting more than usual coverage in Caracas.

Its impossible to know how many Venezuelans could accurately name the provinces of Peru. But not many could. This need not disturb the Irish reader much, as Latin studies were appaling during The Troubles and whereas there is a vague and common conception of the importance of Paddington to Darkest Peru amongst east coast residents of Eire, no-one really gives a shit who's going to win.

Thus I leave the talented "latin" readers amongst you, a link to today's "Universal" (pro-regime) in Venezuela as they reflect on the fact that "the support of Chavez (the president of Venezuela) has become the stone in the shoe of Mister Humala (not the capitalist candidate)" .
http://www.eluniversal.com/2006/05/09/int_art_09111E.shtml They claim the campaign against Humala is now a global media attempt to describe an axis of "Chavez the dictator & Humala the authoritarian"...................... gosh! This of course utterly silly. Chavez won his last democratic vote in his state in 2005 with a landslide victory, though the nit pickers pointed out participation was only 25% of the enfranchised population who are famed for "voter fatigue"............... maybe they are all anarchists? or Maybe they're like UK local election voters who only managed to see 35% turnout? Anyway the run-off is to be celebrated now between Garcia at 57% of opinion poll and Humala at 43%. I can't help wondering how much % percentage sweet third way barking mad kathurlick -save ourselves all the hassle, she would have counterpointed twice divorced mother of three agnostic Michelle Bachelet, president of Chile Lourdes Flores would have got if she was still in the race


oh yes.
To vote or not to Vote
that is the question.

by iosaf Thu Apr 20, 2006 14:10

at this link the latest official recounted votes in the Italian election
http://www.corriere.it/Primo_Piano/Politica/2006/04_Apr...shtml
of all the elections which took place that day, Peru, Hungary (see above) and the unforgetable "swiss cantonal elections of Bern" (c/f "How some of the Swiss voted and "not voted" most recently."
http://indymedia.ie/article/75373 ) We all knew that the Italian one would be the most Mafia like. No doubt about it. Simply because it saw a challenge under the liberal democratic constitution of the Italian republic (written by the USA in the post war period relying on close co-operation with a fascistic anti-socialist and anti-communist RC church and papacy and a wealth of Sicilian american Mafia types in the south) to a man of undoubted megolomania and the closest contemporary equivalent to a dictator Europe has seen - Silvio Berlusconi, one of the richest citizens of Italy, a businessman accused of abusing political power in the courts on average twice a year.

True to psychological profile, the megolomaniac refuses to accept the verdict. & now that the president of Italy has announced he will not continue after his term ends next month, Berlusconi yet again seems likely to exploit weaknesses in the constitution, hampering the creation of Prodi's new administration and (the theory is) hastening its demise. Horrble stuff. This is really what you get in the modern age, when Liberal Democracy is wedded to Globalised Capital and its cult of "strong leaders" and both ride on the back of the beast which is the Military Industrial Complex and entertainment industry of the USA.

by iosaf / ipsiphi - "Who killed Jesus?" Fri Apr 14, 2006 19:08

& kids this is how it works, the Mafia evolved over thousands and thousands of years, some clever types think just as soon as there was a bumper harvest and all the hard working members of the collective had too many grubs and grains to eat.
so they sat down and had an assembly.
(here follow the edited minutes)

Ugh :- fellow assembly members we have too many grubs and grains to eat, what will we do with the surplus?
Agh :- I propose the motion that we give our surplus grubs and grains to the people on the other side of the big mountain so that they will like us forever and desist from their ocassional raiding to drag the prettiest of our brothers and sisters away by the dreddlocks.
Iggy :- Oh no, Agh, then the people on the other side of the mountain who have a poor harvest of grubs will grow stronger and anyway we're planning on draggin away a few of their prettiest by the dreadlocks this weekend.
Gngngy :- I've a great idea, look at this cave drawing I did earlier, its called a "lock". We may place all our extra grubs and grains under "lock" and this thing hanging around my neck is a "key". I promise all the assembly I will look after the surplus grubs and grains and share them out responsibily when the appropriate time comes.

Well...... time did pass...... empires came and empires fell......

The "leftwing Mafia" have won the election in Italy.
You all know that. Find someone with dreadlocks and pull them.
I've given you the key. Tell them all to fuck off.
The same Mafia rules Italy today as it did yesterday as it did a thousand years ago.

I loved you like a fish but you hurt me. I won the election. I always win the election. I alone count the grubs.

by % Tue Apr 11, 2006 02:44

the opinion poll company Nexus as we would expect is a key player in the democratic process. Democracy is not just about voting, not a bit of it, its about samples of ordinary people who sit at home and watch TV and press little buttons recording their levels of pleasure, concern, fear, happiness &c.., C/F the title and illustration alone of http://indymedia.ie/article/73093

Nexus has just clashed mildly with RAI the Italian state news agency, and decided to "cough cough" stop predicting the vote. This is because their 3 exit polls since the election ended have given conflicting results.

Guess what?
No-one knows who the Italians voted for.
Wow! maybe we have to wait till the votes are counted and Jimmy Carter comes and checks them.

SOLUTION

Both Berlusconi and Prodi could enter a grand coalition and govern Italy together. It worked perfectly well for the Germans, whom we remember chose to vote less for CDU and SPD than they had before, and voted more for the reformed STASI party instead, thus putting the wind up everyone who pays taxes and has private health insurance and speaks a little english, and then they gave us the new liberal capitalist democratic solution :-

the government wins elections

Of course we amongst the moaning masses of exceptional anarchist leaning intellectuals decry such meritocracy as utter falsehood.............. Or do we? The Germans can't vote out a grand coalition they never chose to elect, we just have to wait another 4 years and see how many of them don't bother voting. Globally those who don't bother voting averages 30%. Only in some states is that percentage considered a political statement, such as in Spain, where the abstention in the EU constitution was noted as being a prelude to the No! vote of France and Holland. Abstention reached its highest % in Italy last year on the fertility law reform referendum, which also presented the idea of "voting on two days". "Voting on 2 days" seems wonderful, 19 year old conservatives think that proves the healthy state of liberal democracy. But of course its just b-u-l-l-s-h-i-t. Last year 75% of Italians didn't vote in that referendum. Globally only the Venezuelan elections saw that high a figure, and the same 19 year old experts thought that was "voter fatigue".

Oh yes.
To Vote or Not to Vote.
I'd like to add-
To Opinion Poll or Not to Opinion Poll.

by % Mon Apr 10, 2006 21:32

Maybe Berlusconi isn't going to prison.

Of course the votes aren't counted yet. but RTE has changed its mind!
Must be something in the Irish water that causes irish media types to rewrite and rewrite and airbrush.

This is the latest gurggle ribbid (oh sure if Mr B goes down, then our own Ahern will go, and all of europe will be lefty, and the angelus will be thrashed and Haughey will be in jail, panic, panic, can't you lose that bunch of sicilian chads????)
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0410/italy.html

well don't let them fool you.
here are the results at 25% of the votes actually counted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election%2...sults
and they're going to be constantly updated till 100% of the votes are counted.

by % Mon Apr 10, 2006 17:18

will Berlusconi lose his immunity now & go to prison?

Unione 50%-54% against CDL 45% - 49% in parliament
Unione 159-170 seats in Senate against 139-150 for CDL.
If Nexus 2nd opinion poll of 15h45 today is right ---
He's lost.

We are on the cusp of a new Europe Kids. The pendulum is coming back to the left.

by bong + boing + Mon Apr 10, 2006 15:18

calloo
callay
calloo
callay
bong
boing
bong
boing
only 2 thirds voted.
Italy still isn't a democracy.
But it is less a dictatorship.
Berlusconi can now join Aznar on the regular visitor list to the Bush bunker in Crawford Texas and the fantasy "great world leader" list in their cowboy boots talking about the old days.

ah!!! but!!!! don't pay attention to RTE. its not over till the last wee vote is counted and the Italian government tell us who really won. And that will of course be ..... the government

by iosaf Mon Apr 10, 2006 14:56

However, not with sufficient votes to offset the mechanism of a second poll. Peruvians who are now awaiting official results, (all others being on the basis of exit polls) look forward to a second round of presidential elections between Humala and one of the other candidates who presented yesterday.
Exit polls have not made clear who got the second largest amounts of vote yet - Lourdes Flores a conservative candidate popular in Lima and spun as a "third way" option, and former President Alan García both believed to have won around 22% - 24% of votes against Humala 29% - 32%

The figures provided by Wikipedia are a little different, I'm quoting Latin American press conjecture.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_national_election..._2006

As of yet the parallel and equally important elections to the 120 seat Peruvian congress (parliament) are not available.

___________________________________________________________________

Hungary :-
[wikipedia]
Hungarian Socialist Party -- 43.24%
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union - Christian Democratic People's Party -- 42.03%
Alliance of Free Democrats -- 6.47%
Hungarian Democratic Forum -- 5.05%
According to the electoral authority, voter turnout was 67.7 percent.
As no party could win an overall majority in the first round, a second round run-off is scheduled to take place on April 23. The winning party must poll a majority in both rounds. Failing this, a third round has to be held between the two leading parties.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_el..._2006
_____________________________________________________________________

Italy :-

This is the 2nd day of Reckoning. Find an Italian tell them they can vote at their consulate or Embassy. If they have voted already, try changing their passport numbers or passport photo or dying their hair so they can vote again, we Irish used to do this all the time in Stormont elections, and if you explain it that way (traditional) to the Garda it ought be ok and you'll get off with a caution, after all voter fraud isn't like smoking cannabis.

by io Mon Apr 10, 2006 00:18

at comments http://indymedia.ie/article/75335 on Hungary. Sure of the team of illustrators and html users of indymedia ireland is over there in flooded budapest.

Peru :-
This morning as Humala "the polemic" went to vote "radicals" surrounded the polling station made early afternoon network spanish speaking global TV news-speak and kept the former military type in the polling station for a few hours of dramatic TV made tension meets propaganda meets genuine worry.....

Its really because though Peru saw terrorism for 20 years, and the majority of victims were concentrated in one ethnic group which belongs to one of the ethnic groups Humala. In total 69,280 persons (margin of error minimum 61,007 maximum 77,552) were killed. More than any war Peru had engaged in through her 180 year plus history the majority of those who did ok-ish all considering think of themselves as "whitey peruvians". For the moment it seems he has won the vote. At illustration a put the wind up them!!!!!!! reminder of his alledged pals .

Of course as I said in today's "Sunday Papers Judas edition" http://indymedia.ie/article/75335 no matter who say they won or didn't win the elections today, our kids aren't going out on barricades.

Italy, Peru or Hungary aren't Bylerussia. & anyway, I'm technically on holidays.
Give me my easter bunny back & tell me who killed Cock Robin and I'll organise an "orange revolution" in Lima or Rome or Budapest for you.

Background - http://www.cverdad.org.pe

oh yes. less than 2 years on the wind is put up them. & no-one in english speaking globe bothered to notice.