DUP set for electoral success

international | politics / elections | opinion/analysis Friday July 04, 2003 20:32 by Rooster

BEFORE everybody rushes to ridicule the Ulster Unionist Party or the individuals who resigned the party whip at Westminster, let's just take a reality check.

The Agreement has done no favours for unionism.

That isn't a statement about the rightness or wrongness of supporting the Agreement, or not, it's simply a judgment of political fortunes.
The UUP has found itself struggling, election after election, even to consolidate its overall support. In fact, it's been losing votes hand over fist.
During the same period, however, its main rival in the unionist camp, the DUP, is barely recognisable from the sullen table-bangers and nay-sayers of five years ago.
One of the big selling points among the UUP faithful was that signing up to the Agreement would finally see off the electoral threat from the DUP, who would be outside the loop of power.
Now, in spite of having been the butt of jokes by every cheap comedian over the past five years, the DUP stands solid, coherent and glamorous.
Not that long ago rumour abounded that party leader Dr Ian Paisley was not long for this world. Rather than believing these, he lost weight, bought some snazzy new suits and - crucially - brought through a younger and effective party apparatus.
Strangely, for a party that was supposedly a one-man band, the DUP has developed political personnel to a high level unmatched by any other in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the SDLP included.
Iris Robinson, Nigel Dodds, Peter Robinson and Ian Paisley jnr are a formidable frontbench by any party's standards.
Put bluntly, the UUP can't match that.
The problem with shedding the Really Oldies - their lordships Taylor and Maginnis - is that the party has been left thin on experience.
Yes they have some very capable, genuine, heavy-hitters but somehow the party still looks stale, tired and very old.
Seeing the UUP and DUP together is a bit like seeing Rod Stewart at Ascot, in a top hat and tails, with his, shall we say, fresher-looking girlfriend.
Even Sinn Fein, which brought about an incredible transformation in the 80s, can't say (as the DUP can) that their leaders operate without a high degree of risk to their positions.
Of course, that DUP line-up is the main reason why Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside will, quite sensibly, do all sorts of tap-dancing before they ever really consider seriously throwing their lot in with the DUP.
Let's face it, they may have "leadership issues"' in the UUP but they wouldn't get within a beagle's gowl of the top post in the DUP.
Yes, Martin Smyth did mount a leadership challenge a while back but the fact is that he is more desperately concerned about the Union than about who other than Trimble runs the Unionist Party.
And this points up the oddness of this trio of malcontents.
It's all very well tilting at Trimble via endless party councils - everybody can take a potshot according to their own particular gripe but, at the end, it was always going to be 54:46, or whatever, in Trimble's favour.
It never came down to a radical, simple mano-a-mano vote between Trimble and Donaldson for the leadership.
Points of policy, yes. Make me leader, no.
Now, their latest failure of nerve has forced all three are out of the closet - in a way that would make it very difficult to get back in.
Quite aside from the big issue of pro- or anti-Agreement, Assembly or no-Assembly, the question now is very clear: do either Donaldson or Burnside offer viable leadership alternatives to Trimble?
And how do their own career ambitions size up with each other in this regard?
These questions are there to be answered, but they come at a time when David Trimble is less likely than ever to play into their hands by trotting back into the Assembly.
In the meantime, they are in the unenviable position of straddling two very high and very far apart stools.
If either side should kick the legs from under them, they'll have very sore rear-ends indeed.