A Call for Donations to help the victims of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines

by T Wed Nov 13, 2013 13:26

Whilst this may detract from the appeals for help, it has a bearing on determining when a typhoon like Haiyan is likely to strike again.

The sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean have been abnormally hot this year and one of the key drivers of source of energy for a hurricane is the temperature of the sea because this allows more water to evaporate and it is when the water vapor condenses a while later back into water, it releases that heat again and hurricanes are basically huge heat engines. In fact a water temperature of 26 deg Celsius is considered the trigger.

Robert Fannéy (the science fiction writer who has an interest in science) reports on his blog and is reported elsewhere that this was possibly the strongest hurricane/typhoon ever recorded.

He writes:

Very hot ocean waters ranging from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius above the 1980-2000 average throughout much of 2013 have spawned numerous severe weather events throughout the Western Pacific. On January 1rst, the first tropical cyclone of 2013 formed, not waiting even a day to begin what would prove to be an explosive, record season.

Throughout 2013, cyclones continued to form so that by November 81 cyclones had ripped through this region of the Pacific. Of this number, 38 storms were tropical depressions, 30 were tropical storms, and 13 were hurricanes. Four of these hurricanes were category 5 monsters.

.....Ocean heat temperature maps seem to be painting a bulls eye on the Western Pacific. And, for 2013, large swaths of water in this area continued to boast temperatures in excess of 90 degrees (F) (32.2 C). This abnormally hot water enhanced evaporation and fueled various extreme weather events including the massive spate of tropical systems as well as the record floods seen in the Amur region of Russia and China.

As with many other extreme warming events, the regional warming seen in the western Pacific cannot be entirely separated from an ongoing global warming trend. August of 2013 boasted the world’s hottest ocean temperatures ever recorded. September 2013 tied 2005 for the hottest September on record. Extreme heating provides more energy for storms, droughts, and other extreme weather events. For each degree Celsius of global temperature increase, the hydrological cycle (the rate at which water evaporates and precipitates) increases by around 7 percent. Such an increase makes droughts more extreme even as it provides added heat and moisture fuel to increase the intensity of storms.

So as we can see these high temperatures do not bode well and very strongly point to a high probability of this happening again.

This is not good news for the people in that part of the world.

Seasonal Ocean Surface Temps, Average Value, August-November, 2013. Image Source: NOAA