Launch of Forfás Oil Dependency Study

Thursday April 06, 2006 18:58

by Terence

A Baseline Assessment of Ireland's Oil Dependence: Key Policy Considerations

The Irish Gov agency Forfás has published it's report into the dependency of Ireland on oil and what it should do in response to the looming issue of Peak Oil in this regard.

It looks like people in the government are finally waking up to Peak Oil but relatively slowly it seems and it's quite clear the significance of it will take some time to sink in.

Taken from the URL below:
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Speaking on the launch of the report, Martin Cronin, Chief Executive, Forfás commented, “The high probability that a supply of cheap oil will peak over the next 10 to 15 years, poses a serious challenge for the global economy. As peaking is encountered, liquid fuel prices could increase dramatically and governments, businesses and economies could face significant economic and social change. Ireland is more dependent on imported oil for our transport and energy requirements than almost every other European country and it will take up to 10 years to significantly reduce this dependence. It is essential that we now begin to prepare for such a challenge.”

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Many people are still waking up to Peak Oil and there is quite a lot of confusion about on the topic. This is largely because it's a relatively complex area, and sizing oil-fields, determining rates of production and decline and things like reserves, probable reserves and rates of recovery are all difficult things to get exact figures on.

Also into the melting pot are references to Regular Oil or Conventional Oil and Heavy Oil. One of the leading advocates for promoting Peak Oil is ASPO headed by (Irishman) Dr. Colin Campbell. See www.peakoil.ie and www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/

According to ASPO the Peak Oil of Regular Oil arrived in 2005, but the Peak for all liquids which includes heavy oil and other stuff is 2010. You will see, as above, that various government agencies still talk of Peak Oil in the 2010 - 2015 timeframe. I suspect this is to keep themselves and everyone else calm to give the impression it still lies in the future and there is time to do something. Notice the way in the summary above Martin Cronin places the problem 10 years ahead and says we have 10 years to get this right. It remains to be seen whether this is true.

A URL to the full PDF version of the Forfás is also at the link below.

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Launch of Forfás Oil Dependency Study