The Health Information and Quality Authority (HIQA) has released a press release today where they did their own analysis of the excess deaths in Ireland since early March and the figure they come to is between 1,100 and 1,200 which is substantially lower than the "official" Covid death toll of 1700+.
This means that as was suspected the official number was way too liberal with categorizing deaths as due to Covid. This new figure is closer to a regular year of flu in terms of number of deaths and conclusively proves that Covid is barely any more dangerous than flu in terms of threat. What we see here is a slow back track and while the emphasis is still on social distancing, this is merely to give cover to the fact that at a minimum this has been one big mistake and a massive over-reaction but is true of many other countries but not all. It could be viewed as how badly group think has taken over our society because there were moments in the last few months where one dare not challenge the official figures for fear of social ostracizing
The full report is available at: https://www.hiqa.ie/hiqa-news-updates/covid-19-causes-13-increase-deaths-ireland-between-march-and-june-2020-hiqa
The report assesses the number of deaths that occurred in Ireland from 11 March 2020 to 16 June 2020, relative to the expected number of deaths, using data from the death notices website RIP.ie. It also examines whether the reported COVID-19 death figures provides an accurate estimate of excess deaths during the epidemic.
HIQA’s Chief Scientist, Dr Conor Teljeur, said: “Based on an analysis of the death notices reported on RIP.ie since 2010, there is clear evidence of excess deaths occurring since the first reported death due to COVID-19 in Ireland. There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June. However, the number of excess deaths is substantially less than the reported 1,709 COVID-19-related deaths over the same period.”
HIQA found that the officially-reported COVID-19 deaths likely overestimates the true burden of excess deaths caused by the virus. This could be due to the inclusion within official figures of people who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) at the time of death whose cause of death may have been predominantly due to other factors.
Deaths due to COVID-19 have been presented to the public in a variety of ways, often as a case-fatality rate (the number of COVID-19 deaths divided by the number of COVID-19 cases). The case-fatality rate is dependent on accurate coding of cause of death and on the volume of testing to detect cases. Excess mortality eliminates the reliance on identification of cases or cause of death.
The data were analysed using a time series approach whereby expected deaths were predicted using historical RIP.ie death notice data. Since 2010, the number of deaths annually has followed an increasing trend due to an increasing and ageing population. Using an average of previous mortality without adjusting for the increasing trend would underestimate expected mortality and therefore overestimate excess mortality.
COVID-19 may have accelerated time of death in frail and vulnerable individuals over the peak period. The excess mortality observed at the peak is now being followed by a period of decreased mortality as date of death for individuals who would ordinarily have died during this time occurred earlier than expected by a matter of weeks or months.